NK Slaven Belupo
vs
Istra 1961
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 Istra 1961
The model makes it 40% NK Slaven Belupo, 28% draw, 32% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NK Slaven Belupo 1.47, Istra 1961 1.25.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- NK Slaven Belupo are 8th on 10 points from 9 games; Istra 1961 are 6th on 12 points from 10 games — HNL.
- NK Slaven Belupo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to HNK Rijeka.
- Istra 1961 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Istra 1961 3–0 NK Slaven Belupo.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Slaven Belupo at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
Istra 1961
- L0-2away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17 October 2026
- W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026
- L0-1HNK Gorica19 September 2026
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
What these results say
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NK Slaven Belupo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
Istra 1961
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
- 15 August 2026Istra 1961 3–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 4 May 2026Istra 1961 3–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 27 February 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 November 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 12 September 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 28 April 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski70
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen73
- H. Jaganjac41
- D. Ahmeti34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Slaven Belupo carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.35 for Istra 1961. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.25 for Istra 1961. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.59 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Istra 1961 rate 0.59 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Istra 1961, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Slaven Belupo a 0% chance of the title and Istra 1961 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Slaven Belupo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo against 1.25 for Istra 1961. NK Slaven Belupo's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.59 for Istra 1961.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Slaven Belupo at home · Istra 1961 away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Slaven Belupo 9, Istra 1961 10.
NK Slaven Belupo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Istra 1961 have let in 0 there.
Istra 1961 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); NK Slaven Belupo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NK Slaven Belupo
- at HNK Gorica7 Nov · HNLwin 29%
- vs NK Osijek21 Nov · HNLwin 41%
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 26%
Istra 1961
- vs HNK Rijeka7 Nov · HNLwin 35%
- at Dinamo Zagreb21 Nov · HNLwin 12%
- vs NK Varazdin28 Nov · HNLwin 34%
- at Rudes5 Dec · HNLwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.