HNK Gorica
vs
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Gorica 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
The model makes it 42% HNK Gorica, 30% draw, 28% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HNK Gorica 1.34, NK Slaven Belupo 0.99.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. HNK Gorica's rating is built from 46 Croatian HNL matches and NK Slaven Belupo's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 409 matches.
Key facts
- HNK Gorica are bottom on 6 points from 10 games; NK Slaven Belupo are 8th on 10 points from 10 games — HNL.
- HNK Gorica have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to NK Osijek.
- NK Slaven Belupo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Slaven Belupo 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 HNK Gorica.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Gorica at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica
HNL
- D1-1away to NK Osijek17 October 2026
- L1-2Rudes9 October 2026
- W1-0away to Istra 196119 September 2026
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL
- L1-5Dinamo Zagreb18 October 2026
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 6 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 22 August 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 10 May 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 7 March 2026HNK Gorica 2–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 5 December 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 21 September 2025HNK Gorica 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 18 May 2025NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Gorica carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.26 for NK Slaven Belupo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for HNK Gorica and 0.99 for NK Slaven Belupo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Gorica rate 0.44 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.59 and 1.94.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Slaven Belupo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Gorica the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for HNK Gorica against 0.99 for NK Slaven Belupo. HNK Gorica's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.94 for NK Slaven Belupo.
How the model reaches 42% for HNK Gorica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HNK Gorica to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, HNK Gorica's ratings take away 27 points and NK Slaven Belupo's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- HNK Gorica's ratings17%−27
- NK Slaven Belupo's ratings42%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HNK Gorica at home · NK Slaven Belupo away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
HNK GoricaNK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica are 10th after 10 HNL matches (between 8th and 10th so far); NK Slaven Belupo are 8th after 10 (between 7th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Gorica 10, NK Slaven Belupo 10.
HNK Gorica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); NK Slaven Belupo have let in 3 there.
NK Slaven Belupo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); HNK Gorica have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
HNK Gorica
- at HNK Rijeka21 Nov · HNLwin 19%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 19%
- at NK Varazdin5 Dec · HNLwin 18%
NK Slaven Belupo
- vs NK Osijek21 Nov · HNLwin 39%
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 25%
- vs HNK Hajduk Split5 Dec · HNLwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.