Jong Ajax
vs
Heracles
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Jong Ajax 1–2 Heracles
The model makes it 20% Jong Ajax, 22% draw, 58% Heracles — fair odds of 5.00, 4.55 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.15, Heracles 2.28.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
One-sided: Heracles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Jong Ajax's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Heracles's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Jong Ajax are 14th on 16 points from 14 games; Heracles are top on 35 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Jong Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to FC Eindhoven.
- Heracles are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-1 win at home to Roda.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2023, ended Heracles 2–0 Jong Ajax.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jong Ajax vs Heracles
Has the model earned this number?
Heracles at 58%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jong Ajax vs Heracles
Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie
- W3-0away to FC Eindhoven6 November 2026
- D1-1Vitesse2 November 2026
- D3-3away to FC OSS23 October 2026
- W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
- L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026
Heracles
Eerste Divisie
- W5-1Roda6 November 2026
- W2-0FC OSS2 November 2026
- D1-1away to NAC Breda23 October 2026
- W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026
- W3-0Waalwijk9 October 2026
What these results say
- Jong Ajax scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Ajax had three goals or more.
- Heracles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Heracles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heracles won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Jong Ajax | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 16 |
| 1 | Heracles | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 15 | +29 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs Heracles
- 19 May 2023Heracles 2–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 5 September 2022Jong Ajax 4–0 HeraclesEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and Heracles
Jong Ajax
GoalsAssists
- E. Ünüvar80
- D. Pugno62
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli142
- T. van Gilst112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Ajax a 0% chance of the title and Heracles 89.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Jong Ajax against 2.28 for Heracles. Jong Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.24 for Heracles.
How the model reaches 58% for Heracles to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Heracles to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Jong Ajax's ratings add 14 points and Heracles's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Jong Ajax's ratings43%+14
- Heracles's ratings58%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Jong Ajax at home · Heracles away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Ajax 14, Heracles 14.
Jong Ajax score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Heracles have let in 4 there.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Jong Ajax have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Jong Ajax
- at Den Bosch4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
- vs MVV11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at Waalwijk18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
Heracles
- vs Emmen4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 74%
- vs FC Volendam11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 66%
- at De Graafschap18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.