Regular Season - 2 · 23 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

JS Kabylie vs MC Alger Ligue 1 prediction

Hocine Ait Ahmed Stadium, Tizi Ouzou

Our model says: JS Kabylie 1–0 MC Alger

The model makes it 39% JS Kabylie, 30% draw, 31% MC Alger — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: JS Kabylie 1.23, MC Alger 1.02.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. JS Kabylie's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and MC Alger's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • JS Kabylie are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games; MC Alger are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
  • JS Kabylie are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Olympique Akbou.
  • MC Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to JS El Biar.
  • Last 6 meetings: MC Alger 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 26 February 2026, ended MC Alger 0–0 JS Kabylie.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: JS Kabylie vs MC Alger

46%
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

JS Kabylie win Draw MC Alger win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read JS Kabylie first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

JS Kabylie at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into JS Kabylie vs MC Alger

JS Kabylie

Ligue 1

  • D0-0away to Olympique Akbou7 November 2026
  • W1-0JS El Biar30 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Khenchela24 October 2026
  • W4-1US Biskra18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to ES Setif14 October 2026

MC Alger

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to JS El Biar8 November 2026
  • W2-0MC Oran4 November 2026
  • W2-0Khenchela31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to US Biskra27 October 2026
  • D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026

What these results say

  • JS Kabylie went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • JS Kabylie scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for MC Alger had two goals or fewer.
  • MC Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2JS Kabylie8521113+817
3MC Alger751192+716

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

JS Kabylie

Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today

Win 43%
Draw 34%
Defeat 28%

MC Alger

Chance to finish in the top two · 53% today

Win 62%
Draw 52%
Defeat 46%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: JS Kabylie vs MC Alger

  • 26 February 2026MC Alger 0–0 JS KabylieLigue 1
  • 2 January 2026JS Kabylie 1–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 13 February 2025MC Alger 3–2 JS KabylieLigue 1
  • 1 October 2024JS Kabylie 1–2 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 26 May 2024JS Kabylie 1–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 6 January 2024MC Alger 1–1 JS KabylieLigue 1

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives JS Kabylie a 16.2% chance of the title and MC Alger 28.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

JS Kabylie MC Alger
0.66 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.63
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.15
1.23 Model expected goals (this match) 1.02

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives JS Kabylie the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for JS Kabylie against 1.02 for MC Alger. JS Kabylie's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.15 for MC Alger.

JS Kabylie carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.56 for MC Alger. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for JS Kabylie to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for JS Kabylie to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, JS Kabylie's ratings take away 1 point and MC Alger's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. JS Kabylie's ratings41%−1
  5. MC Alger's ratings39%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

JS KabylieMC Alger
8Matches7
5W 2D 1LRecord5W 1D 1L
11 1.4 per gameGoals scored9 1.3 per game
3 0.4 per gameGoals conceded2 0.3 per game
5 of 8Clean sheets5 of 7
2 of 8Failed to score1 of 7
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
14 1.8 per gameYellow cards17 2.4 per game
0Red cards1

JS Kabylie at home · MC Alger away

4Played3
4W 0D 0LRecord1W 1D 1L
7–1Goals for – against2–2
3 of 4Clean sheets1 of 3

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS Kabylie 8, MC Alger 7.

JS Kabylie scored 104420
MC Alger conceded 100100
MC Alger scored 310122
JS Kabylie conceded 200010

MC Alger score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); JS Kabylie have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

JS Kabylie

  • at CR Belouizdad28 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
  • at JS Saoura1 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%
  • vs CS Constantine26 Dec · Ligue 1win 67%

MC Alger

  • at Ben Aknoun28 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.