Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Manisa F.K. vs Pendikspor 1. Lig prediction

Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu, Manisa

Our model says: Manisa F.K. 1–0 Pendikspor

The model makes it 47% Manisa F.K., 27% draw, 26% Pendikspor — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Manisa F.K. 1.61, Pendikspor 1.05.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Manisa F.K.'s rating is built from 52 TFF 1. Lig matches and Pendikspor's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Manisa F.K. are 17th on 13 points from 14 games; Pendikspor are 16th on 14 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
  • Manisa F.K. have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Keçiörengücü.
  • Pendikspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to İstanbulspor.
  • Last 6 meetings: Pendikspor 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Manisa F.K. 2–0 Pendikspor.

More TFF 1. Lig predictions

All TFF 1. Lig predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Manisa F.K. vs Pendikspor

52%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Manisa F.K. win Draw Pendikspor win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Manisa F.K. first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Manisa F.K. at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Manisa F.K. vs Pendikspor

Manisa F.K.

1. Lig

  • L0-1away to Keçiörengücü7 November 2026
  • W2-1Batman Petrolspor31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Mardin 196926 October 2026
  • L3-4Muğlaspor19 October 2026
  • D1-1Esenler Erokspor15 October 2026

Pendikspor

1. Lig

  • L0-2İstanbulspor7 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Fatih Karagümrük31 October 2026
  • D2-2Kayserispor25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Bursaspor19 October 2026
  • L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Manisa F.K. conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Manisa F.K. failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Manisa F.K. scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pendikspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pendikspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Manisa F.K.143472124-313
16Pendikspor143561525-1014

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Manisa F.K.

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 26% today

Win 21%
Draw 28%
Defeat 33%

Pendikspor

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 35% today

Win 26%
Draw 34%
Defeat 39%

From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Manisa F.K. vs Pendikspor

  • 7 April 2026Manisa F.K. 2–0 Pendikspor1. Lig
  • 28 November 2025Pendikspor 2–0 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
  • 15 March 2025Manisa F.K. 2–0 Pendikspor1. Lig
  • 4 November 2024Pendikspor 1–0 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
  • 21 May 2023Manisa F.K. 1–5 Pendikspor1. Lig
  • 24 December 2022Pendikspor 0–0 Manisa F.K.1. Lig

Leading scorers: Manisa F.K. and Pendikspor

Manisa F.K.

GoalsAssists

  • J. Anziani81
  • C. Sylla72

Pendikspor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pendikspor (16th, with Manisa F.K. 17th), while our numbers lean to Manisa F.K.. Manisa F.K. rate 0.59 in attack and 1.77 in defence, Pendikspor 0.49 and 1.68 (lower is better in defence), so Manisa F.K. have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Manisa F.K. Pendikspor
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.68
1.61 Model expected goals (this match) 1.05

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Manisa F.K. the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Manisa F.K. against 1.05 for Pendikspor. Manisa F.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.68 for Pendikspor.

Manisa F.K. carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.24 for Pendikspor. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for Manisa F.K. to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Manisa F.K. to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Manisa F.K.'s ratings add 3 points and Pendikspor's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Manisa F.K.'s ratings46%+3
  5. Pendikspor's ratings47%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Manisa F.K.Pendikspor
14Matches14
3W 4D 7LRecord3W 5D 6L
21 1.5 per gameGoals scored15 1.1 per game
24 1.7 per gameGoals conceded25 1.8 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
5 of 6Penalties scored2 of 2
32 2.3 per gameYellow cards29 2.1 per game
1Red cards5
4-1-4-1 8×Usual shape4-1-4-1 11×

Manisa F.K. at home · Pendikspor away

7Played7
2W 2D 3LRecord2W 1D 4L
11–10Goals for – against7–15
1 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Lig matches this season: Manisa F.K. 14, Pendikspor 14.

Manisa F.K. scored 146234
Pendikspor conceded 313494

Manisa F.K. score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Pendikspor have let in 3 there.

Pendikspor scored 042332
Manisa F.K. conceded 467125

Pendikspor score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Manisa F.K. have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Manisa F.K.

  • at Ümraniyespor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 24%
  • vs Bandırmaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 42%
  • at Antalyaspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 28%
  • vs Sarıyer20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 46%
  • vs Boluspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 60%

Pendikspor

  • vs Iğdır FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
  • at Esenler Erokspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 18%
  • vs Muğlaspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 46%
  • at Mardin 196920 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
  • at Batman Petrolspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 21%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.