Esenler Erokspor
vs
Antalyaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Esenler Erokspor 1–0 Antalyaspor
The model makes it 54% Esenler Erokspor, 25% draw, 21% Antalyaspor — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Esenler Erokspor 1.90, Antalyaspor 0.99.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Esenler Erokspor: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Esenler Erokspor's rating is built from 53 TFF 1. Lig matches and Antalyaspor's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Esenler Erokspor are 10th on 18 points from 14 games; Antalyaspor are 8th on 20 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Esenler Erokspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Muğlaspor.
- Antalyaspor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Bursaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esenler Erokspor vs Antalyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
Esenler Erokspor at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Esenler Erokspor vs Antalyaspor
Esenler Erokspor
1. Lig
- W5-0away to Muğlaspor7 November 2026
- W3-2Keçiörengücü30 October 2026
- L2-3away to Batman Petrolspor25 October 2026
- W4-2Mardin 196919 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026
Antalyaspor
1. Lig
- D1-1Bursaspor6 November 2026
- D1-1away to Iğdır FK1 November 2026
- L1-2Bodrum FK25 October 2026
- W2-0away to İstanbulspor18 October 2026
- L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026
What these results say
- Esenler Erokspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Esenler Erokspor had three goals or more.
- Antalyaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Esenler Erokspor | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Antalyaspor
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 5% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Esenler Erokspor and Antalyaspor
Esenler Erokspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Kanga51
Antalyaspor
GoalsAssists
- S. van de Streek42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Antalyaspor (eighth, with Esenler Erokspor tenth), while our numbers lean to Esenler Erokspor. Esenler Erokspor rate 0.69 in attack and 1.39 in defence, Antalyaspor 0.59 and 1.69 (lower is better in defence), so Esenler Erokspor have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esenler Erokspor a 0.3% chance of the title and Antalyaspor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esenler Erokspor the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor against 0.99 for Antalyaspor. Esenler Erokspor's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.69 for Antalyaspor.
How the model reaches 54% for Esenler Erokspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Esenler Erokspor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Esenler Erokspor's ratings add 5 points and Antalyaspor's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Esenler Erokspor's ratings49%+5
- Antalyaspor's ratings54%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Esenler Erokspor at home · Antalyaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Esenler Erokspor 14, Antalyaspor 14.
Antalyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Esenler Erokspor have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Esenler Erokspor
- at Boluspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 53%
- vs Pendikspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 57%
- at Vanspor FK13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 42%
- vs Bandırmaspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 52%
- vs Sivasspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 59%
Antalyaspor
- vs Fatih Karagümrük29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- at Muğlaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Manisa F.K.13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Batman Petrolspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 25%
- at Keçiörengücü10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.