Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Kayserispor vs Sarıyer 1. Lig prediction

RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

Our model says: Kayserispor 2–0 Sarıyer

The model makes it 68% Kayserispor, 21% draw, 11% Sarıyer — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Kayserispor 2.24, Sarıyer 0.64.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Kayserispor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kayserispor's rating is built from 14 TFF 1. Lig matches and Sarıyer's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Kayserispor are 2nd on 30 points from 14 games; Sarıyer are 13th on 17 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
  • Kayserispor have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Ümraniyespor.
  • Sarıyer have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Iğdır FK.

More TFF 1. Lig predictions

All TFF 1. Lig predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kayserispor vs Sarıyer

43%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kayserispor win Draw Sarıyer win
  1. 2–014%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 3–011%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Kayserispor first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Kayserispor at 68%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kayserispor vs Sarıyer

Kayserispor

1. Lig

  • L1-2away to Ümraniyespor8 November 2026
  • W6-0Muğlaspor2 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Pendikspor25 October 2026
  • D2-2Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026

Sarıyer

1. Lig

  • D1-1Iğdır FK6 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Vanspor FK31 October 2026
  • L0-2Fatih Karagümrük24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sivasspor17 October 2026
  • L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Kayserispor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Kayserispor had three goals or more.
  • Sarıyer did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sarıyer had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Kayserispor149323311+2230
13Sarıyer144551519-417

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Kayserispor

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 39% today

Win 40%
Draw 34%
Defeat 30%

Sarıyer

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 27% today

Win 20%
Draw 23%
Defeat 28%

From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Kayserispor vs Sarıyer

  • 1 December 2015Sarıyer 2–7 KayserisporTürkiye Kupası

Leading scorers: Kayserispor and Sarıyer

Kayserispor

GoalsAssists

  • T. Seferi102
  • D. Moreno101
  • F. Hasani50

Sarıyer

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kayserispor a 38.8% chance of the title and Sarıyer 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Kayserispor v Sarıyer has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 70% / 20% / 10% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 68% / 21% / 11%: the biggest move is Kayserispor's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Kayserispor win68%▼ −2
  2. Draw21%▲ +1
  3. Sarıyer win11%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kayserispor Sarıyer
0.89 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.46
1.16 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.55
2.24 Model expected goals (this match) 0.64

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kayserispor the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Kayserispor against 0.64 for Sarıyer. Kayserispor's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.55 for Sarıyer.

Kayserispor carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.26 for Sarıyer.

How the model reaches 68% for Kayserispor to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kayserispor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kayserispor's ratings add 14 points and Sarıyer's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 68%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Kayserispor's ratings57%+14
  5. Sarıyer's ratings68%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

KayserisporSarıyer
14Matches14
9W 3D 2LRecord4W 5D 5L
33 2.4 per gameGoals scored15 1.1 per game
11 0.8 per gameGoals conceded19 1.4 per game
8 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14
0 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
4 of 4Penalties scored4 of 5
29 2.1 per gameYellow cards27 1.9 per game
4-1-4-1 6×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Kayserispor at home · Sarıyer away

6Played6
4W 1D 1LRecord1W 3D 2L
18–6Goals for – against5–8
3 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Lig matches this season: Kayserispor 14, Sarıyer 14.

Kayserispor scored 439545
Sarıyer conceded 243253

Kayserispor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Sarıyer have let in 3 there.

Sarıyer scored 112254
Kayserispor conceded 111224

Sarıyer score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Kayserispor have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Kayserispor

  • at Keçiörengücü29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 41%
  • vs Bodrum FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 56%
  • at Bandırmaspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 48%
  • vs Boluspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 81%
  • vs Vanspor FK10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 71%

Sarıyer

  • vs İstanbulspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
  • at Mardin 19696 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
  • vs Bursaspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 22%
  • at Manisa F.K.20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 26%
  • at Muğlaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.