Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Iraklis 1908
The model makes it 62% Olympiakos Piraeus, 25% draw, 13% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 1.61, 4.00 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85, Iraklis 1908 0.58.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Olympiakos Piraeus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Olympiakos Piraeus's rating is built from 42 Greek Super League matches and Iraklis 1908's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Olympiakos Piraeus are 2nd on 23 points from 10 games; Iraklis 1908 are 9th on 10 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- Olympiakos Piraeus are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to PAOK.
- Iraklis 1908 are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Panathinaikos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908
Has the model earned this number?
Olympiakos Piraeus at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1
- D1-1PAOK8 November 2026
- W3-2away to Kifisia31 October 2026
- W5-0Kalamata25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Panetolikos18 October 2026
- W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1
- L1-2Panathinaikos8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Kalamata2 November 2026
- L2-3Kifisia24 October 2026
- L1-2away to PAOK18 October 2026
- W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026
What these results say
- Olympiakos Piraeus went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Iraklis 1908 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Iraklis 1908 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Iraklis 1908 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 23 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Olympiakos Piraeus
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 15% today
Iraklis 1908
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908
- 17 December 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 6–0 Iraklis 1908Cup
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908
Olympiakos Piraeus
GoalsAssists
- Jota Silva51
Iraklis 1908
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Marques31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 14.5% chance of the title and Iraklis 1908 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.58 for Iraklis 1908. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.24 for Iraklis 1908.
How the model reaches 62% for Olympiakos Piraeus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olympiakos Piraeus to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings add 11 points and Iraklis 1908's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level39%−2
- Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings50%+11
- Iraklis 1908's ratings62%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Olympiakos Piraeus at home · Iraklis 1908 away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Olympiakos PiraeusIraklis 1908
Olympiakos Piraeus are 2nd after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Iraklis 1908 are 9th after 10 (between 7th and 13th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Olympiakos Piraeus 10, Iraklis 1908 10.
Olympiakos Piraeus score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Iraklis 1908 have let in 1 there.
Iraklis 1908 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Olympiakos Piraeus have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Olympiakos Piraeus
- vs AC Milan26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 39%
- at Aris Thessalonikis29 Nov · Super League 1win 51%
- vs AEK Athens FC5 Dec · Super League 1win 36%
- at Celje10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- at Atromitos13 Dec · Super League 1win 50%
Iraklis 1908
- vs Panetolikos28 Nov · Super League 1win 51%
- at OFI6 Dec · Super League 1win 29%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis12 Dec · Super League 1win 39%
- at Panathinaikos20 Dec · Super League 1win 12%
- vs Volos NFC9 Jan · Super League 1win 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.