Mardin 1969
vs
Bandırmaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Mardin 1969 1–0 Bandırmaspor
The model makes it 48% Mardin 1969, 30% draw, 22% Bandırmaspor — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Mardin 1969 1.35, Bandırmaspor 0.73.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Mardin 1969: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Mardin 1969's rating is built from 14 TFF 1. Lig matches and Bandırmaspor's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Mardin 1969 are 4th on 25 points from 14 games; Bandırmaspor are 15th on 14 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Mardin 1969 are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Batman Petrolspor.
- Bandırmaspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Fatih Karagümrük.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mardin 1969 vs Bandırmaspor
Has the model earned this number?
Mardin 1969 at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mardin 1969 vs Bandırmaspor
Mardin 1969
1. Lig
- D1-1Batman Petrolspor8 November 2026
- W2-1away to İstanbulspor1 November 2026
- W2-1Manisa F.K.26 October 2026
- L2-4away to Esenler Erokspor19 October 2026
- W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026
Bandırmaspor
1. Lig
- L0-4Fatih Karagümrük8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Bursaspor31 October 2026
- L1-2Iğdır FK24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bodrum FK17 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026
What these results say
- Mardin 1969 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mardin 1969 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Mardin 1969.
- Bandırmaspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bandırmaspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mardin 1969 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 25 |
| 15 | Bandırmaspor | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mardin 1969
Chance to finish in the top two · 6% today
Bandırmaspor
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 21% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Mardin 1969 and Bandırmaspor
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- O. Kayode52
Bandırmaspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Bruno50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mardin 1969 a 1% chance of the title and Bandırmaspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Mardin 1969 v Bandırmaspor has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 44% / 31% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 48% / 30% / 22%: the biggest move is Mardin 1969's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Mardin 1969 win48%▲ +4
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Bandırmaspor win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mardin 1969 the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Mardin 1969 against 0.73 for Bandırmaspor. Mardin 1969's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.43 for Bandırmaspor.
How the model reaches 48% for Mardin 1969 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mardin 1969 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Mardin 1969's ratings add 4 points and Bandırmaspor's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level40%−4
- Mardin 1969's ratings44%+4
- Bandırmaspor's ratings48%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mardin 1969 at home · Bandırmaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Mardin 1969 14, Bandırmaspor 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mardin 1969
- at Muğlaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 42%
- vs Sarıyer6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 52%
- at Keçiörengücü13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 27%
- vs Pendikspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 53%
- vs Ümraniyespor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 44%
Bandırmaspor
- vs Batman Petrolspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 40%
- at Manisa F.K.6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 29%
- vs Kayserispor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 24%
- at Esenler Erokspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 21%
- at İstanbulspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.