Regular Season - 15 · 20 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor 1. Lig prediction

Our model says: Iğdır FK 1–0 Ümraniyespor

The model makes it 41% Iğdır FK, 32% draw, 27% Ümraniyespor — fair odds of 2.44, 3.13 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Iğdır FK 1.18, Ümraniyespor 0.86.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Iğdır FK's rating is built from 52 TFF 1. Lig matches and Ümraniyespor's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Iğdır FK are 3rd on 28 points from 14 games; Ümraniyespor are 12th on 17 points from 13 games — 1. Lig.
  • Iğdır FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sarıyer.
  • Ümraniyespor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kayserispor.
  • Last 4 meetings: Iğdır FK 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Iğdır FK 1–1 Ümraniyespor.

More TFF 1. Lig predictions

All TFF 1. Lig predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor

41%
Both teams to score
33%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Iğdır FK win Draw Ümraniyespor win
  1. 1–015%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–014%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Iğdır FK first; the other scorelines share the remaining 24%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Iğdır FK at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor

Iğdır FK

1. Lig

  • D1-1away to Sarıyer6 November 2026
  • D1-1Antalyaspor1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Bandırmaspor24 October 2026
  • W1-0Boluspor18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Keçiörengücü14 October 2026

Ümraniyespor

1. Lig

  • W2-1Kayserispor8 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Bodrum FK1 November 2026
  • W4-0Sivasspor24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Vanspor FK18 October 2026
  • D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Iğdır FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Iğdır FK had two goals or fewer.
  • Ümraniyespor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Ümraniyespor scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Iğdır FK148421911+828
12Ümraniyespor134541612+417

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Iğdır FK

Chance to finish in the top two · 6% today

Win 8%
Draw 5%
Defeat 4%

From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor

  • 13 February 2026Iğdır FK 1–1 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 19 September 2025Ümraniyespor 0–1 Iğdır FK1. Lig
  • 28 March 2025Iğdır FK 0–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 8 November 2024Ümraniyespor 0–1 Iğdır FK1. Lig

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Iğdır FK a 1% chance of the title and Ümraniyespor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Iğdır FK v Ümraniyespor has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 43% / 31% / 26% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 32% / 27%: the biggest move is Iğdır FK's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Iğdır FK win41%▼ −2
  2. Draw32%▲ +1
  3. Ümraniyespor win27%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Iğdır FK Ümraniyespor
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.55
1.3 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.34
1.18 Model expected goals (this match) 0.86

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Iğdır FK the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Iğdır FK against 0.86 for Ümraniyespor. Iğdır FK's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.34 for Ümraniyespor.

Iğdır FK carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.42 for Ümraniyespor. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Iğdır FK to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Iğdır FK to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Iğdır FK's ratings change nothing and Ümraniyespor's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. Iğdır FK's ratings41%±0
  5. Ümraniyespor's ratings41%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Iğdır FKÜmraniyespor
14Matches13
8W 4D 2LRecord4W 5D 4L
19 1.4 per gameGoals scored16 1.2 per game
11 0.8 per gameGoals conceded12 0.9 per game
5 of 14Clean sheets4 of 13
3 of 14Failed to score3 of 13
2 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
35 2.5 per gameYellow cards23 1.8 per game
2Red cards2
4-1-4-1 6×Usual shape4-3-3 9×

Iğdır FK at home · Ümraniyespor away

7Played6
5W 1D 1LRecord2W 2D 2L
11–5Goals for – against7–6
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Lig matches this season: Iğdır FK 14, Ümraniyespor 13.

Iğdır FK scored 342253
Ümraniyespor conceded 131132

Iğdır FK score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Ümraniyespor have let in 3 there.

Ümraniyespor scored 321154
Iğdır FK conceded 012233

Ümraniyespor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Iğdır FK have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Iğdır FK

  • at Pendikspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
  • vs Sivasspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 52%
  • at Bodrum FK13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 25%
  • vs Vanspor FK20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 51%
  • at Fatih Karagümrük10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 26%

Ümraniyespor

  • vs Manisa F.K.29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
  • at İstanbulspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 41%
  • vs Batman Petrolspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 45%
  • at Bursaspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 17%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.