Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Boluspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 Boluspor
The model makes it 66% Fatih Karagümrük, 22% draw, 12% Boluspor — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 2.15, Boluspor 0.66.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Fatih Karagümrük are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Fatih Karagümrük's rating is built from 14 TFF 1. Lig matches and Boluspor's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Fatih Karagümrük are 9th on 19 points from 14 games; Boluspor are bottom on 4 points from 13 games — 1. Lig.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Bandırmaspor.
- Boluspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bodrum FK.
- Last 4 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2025, ended Boluspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor
Has the model earned this number?
Fatih Karagümrük at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig
- W4-0away to Bandırmaspor8 November 2026
- L0-1Pendikspor31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sarıyer24 October 2026
- L1-2Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026
Boluspor
1. Lig
- L1-2Bodrum FK8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Sivasspor1 November 2026
- L0-3Vanspor FK23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK18 October 2026
- L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026
What these results say
- Boluspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 19 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor
- 19 April 2025Boluspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
- 14 December 2024Fatih Karagümrük 2–2 Boluspor1. Lig
- 6 July 2020Fatih Karagümrük 3–1 Boluspor1. Lig
- 14 December 2019Boluspor 0–2 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Boluspor
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Boluspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fatih Karagümrük a 0.2% chance of the title and Boluspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Fatih Karagümrük v Boluspor has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 59% / 25% / 16% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 66% / 22% / 12%: the biggest move is Fatih Karagümrük's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Fatih Karagümrük win66%▲ +7
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Boluspor win12%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük against 0.66 for Boluspor. Fatih Karagümrük's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.17 for Boluspor.
How the model reaches 66% for Fatih Karagümrük to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fatih Karagümrük to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Fatih Karagümrük's ratings add 11 points and Boluspor's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 66%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Fatih Karagümrük's ratings54%+11
- Boluspor's ratings66%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fatih Karagümrük at home · Boluspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Fatih Karagümrük 14, Boluspor 13.
Boluspor score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Fatih Karagümrük have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fatih Karagümrük
- at Antalyaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Vanspor FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 55%
- at Sivasspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 40%
- vs Bodrum FK20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 41%
- vs Iğdır FK10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 44%
Boluspor
- vs Esenler Erokspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 21%
- at Bursaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 7%
- vs İstanbulspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 38%
- at Kayserispor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 6%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.