Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 10:30 UTC

İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü 1. Lig prediction

Istanbul

Our model says: İstanbulspor 1–2 Keçiörengücü

The model makes it 26% İstanbulspor, 26% draw, 48% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: İstanbulspor 1.23, Keçiörengücü 1.85.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

One-sided: Keçiörengücü are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. İstanbulspor's rating is built from 52 TFF 1. Lig matches and Keçiörengücü's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • İstanbulspor are 19th on 8 points from 14 games; Keçiörengücü are 6th on 23 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
  • İstanbulspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Pendikspor.
  • Keçiörengücü have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Manisa F.K..
  • Last 6 meetings: Keçiörengücü 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 January 2026, ended İstanbulspor 2–2 Keçiörengücü.

More TFF 1. Lig predictions

All TFF 1. Lig predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü

60%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

İstanbulspor win Draw Keçiörengücü win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 0–28%
  5. 2–16%
  6. 1–36%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read İstanbulspor first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Keçiörengücü at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü

İstanbulspor

1. Lig

  • W2-0away to Pendikspor7 November 2026
  • L1-2Mardin 19691 November 2026
  • L0-5away to Muğlaspor24 October 2026
  • L0-2Antalyaspor18 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026

Keçiörengücü

1. Lig

  • W1-0Manisa F.K.7 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Esenler Erokspor30 October 2026
  • L2-4Bursaspor25 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Fatih Karagümrük19 October 2026
  • D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026

What these results say

  • İstanbulspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • İstanbulspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Keçiörengücü scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19İstanbulspor1422101233-218
6Keçiörengücü146532618+823

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

İstanbulspor

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 78% today

Win 71%
Draw 78%
Defeat 81%

Keçiörengücü

Chance to finish in the top two · 6% today

Win 7%
Draw 5%
Defeat 3%

From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü

  • 19 January 2026İstanbulspor 2–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 16 August 2025Keçiörengücü 0–0 İstanbulspor1. Lig
  • 12 April 2025İstanbulspor 0–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 8 December 2024Keçiörengücü 2–1 İstanbulspor1. Lig
  • 18 March 2022İstanbulspor 1–1 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 23 October 2021Keçiörengücü 3–2 İstanbulspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: İstanbulspor and Keçiörengücü

İstanbulspor

GoalsAssists

  • Alieu Cham41

Keçiörengücü

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diouf82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives İstanbulspor a 0% chance of the title and Keçiörengücü 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on İstanbulspor v Keçiörengücü has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 25% / 24% / 51% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is Keçiörengücü's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. İstanbulspor win26%▲ +1
  2. Draw26%▲ +2
  3. Keçiörengücü win48%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

İstanbulspor Keçiörengücü
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.72
2.13 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.48
1.23 Model expected goals (this match) 1.85

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Keçiörengücü the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for İstanbulspor against 1.85 for Keçiörengücü. İstanbulspor's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.48 for Keçiörengücü.

İstanbulspor carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.49 for Keçiörengücü.

How the model reaches 48% for Keçiörengücü to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Keçiörengücü to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, İstanbulspor's ratings add 9 points and Keçiörengücü's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. İstanbulspor's ratings38%+9
  4. Keçiörengücü's ratings48%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

İstanbulsporKeçiörengücü
14Matches14
2W 2D 10LRecord6W 5D 3L
12 0.9 per gameGoals scored26 1.9 per game
33 2.4 per gameGoals conceded18 1.3 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets5 of 14
6 of 14Failed to score1 of 14
0 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
28 2.0 per gameYellow cards39 2.8 per game
2Red cards0
4-4-2 6×Usual shape4-2-3-1 14×

İstanbulspor at home · Keçiörengücü away

6Played7
0W 2D 4LRecord3W 2D 2L
5–10Goals for – against13–10
0 of 6Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Lig matches this season: İstanbulspor 14, Keçiörengücü 14.

İstanbulspor scored 321133
Keçiörengücü conceded 304443
Keçiörengücü scored 427346
İstanbulspor conceded 448826

Keçiörengücü score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); İstanbulspor have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

İstanbulspor

  • at Sarıyer29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 24%
  • vs Ümraniyespor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 30%
  • at Boluspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 34%
  • vs Sivasspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 40%
  • vs Bandırmaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 34%

Keçiörengücü

  • vs Kayserispor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 32%
  • at Batman Petrolspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 34%
  • vs Mardin 196913 Dec · 1. Ligwin 44%
  • at Muğlaspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 45%
  • vs Antalyaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 54%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.