Bursaspor
vs
Sivasspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bursaspor 2–0 Sivasspor
The model makes it 69% Bursaspor, 20% draw, 11% Sivasspor — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Bursaspor 2.40, Sivasspor 0.68.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Bursaspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bursaspor's rating is built from 14 TFF 1. Lig matches and Sivasspor's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bursaspor are top on 32 points from 14 games; Sivasspor are 18th on 13 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Bursaspor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Antalyaspor.
- Sivasspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Vanspor FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Bursaspor 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 March 2019, ended Bursaspor 3–2 Sivasspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bursaspor vs Sivasspor
Has the model earned this number?
Bursaspor at 69%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bursaspor vs Sivasspor
Bursaspor
1. Lig
- D1-1away to Antalyaspor6 November 2026
- W3-0Bandırmaspor31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Keçiörengücü25 October 2026
- W2-0Pendikspor19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026
Sivasspor
1. Lig
- L1-3away to Vanspor FK7 November 2026
- L1-2Boluspor1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Ümraniyespor24 October 2026
- D1-1Sarıyer17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026
What these results say
- Bursaspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bursaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bursaspor won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursaspor | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 32 |
| 18 | Sivasspor | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bursaspor
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 57% today
Sivasspor
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 48% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bursaspor vs Sivasspor
- 2 March 2019Bursaspor 3–2 SivassporSüper Lig
- 30 September 2018Sivasspor 2–0 BursasporSüper Lig
- 17 March 2018Bursaspor 1–0 SivassporSüper Lig
- 22 October 2017Sivasspor 0–0 BursasporSüper Lig
- 3 April 2016Sivasspor 1–2 BursasporSüper Lig
- 28 October 2015Bursaspor 1–0 SivassporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Bursaspor and Sivasspor
Bursaspor
GoalsAssists
- K. Ịheanachọ173
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bursaspor a 56.7% chance of the title and Sivasspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bursaspor the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Bursaspor against 0.68 for Sivasspor. Bursaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.78 for Sivasspor.
How the model reaches 69% for Bursaspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bursaspor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Bursaspor's ratings add 14 points and Sivasspor's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Bursaspor's ratings57%+14
- Sivasspor's ratings69%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bursaspor at home · Sivasspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bursaspor 14, Sivasspor 14.
Bursaspor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Sivasspor have let in 6 there.
Sivasspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Bursaspor have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bursaspor
- at Vanspor FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 52%
- vs Boluspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 79%
- at Sarıyer13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 50%
- vs Ümraniyespor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 57%
- vs Bodrum FK10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 54%
Sivasspor
- vs Bodrum FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 30%
- at Iğdır FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 20%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 31%
- at İstanbulspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 32%
- at Esenler Erokspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.