Bodrum FK
vs
Vanspor FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bodrum FK 1–0 Vanspor FK
The model makes it 55% Bodrum FK, 26% draw, 19% Vanspor FK — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Bodrum FK 1.71, Vanspor FK 0.78.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Bodrum FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bodrum FK's rating is built from 55 TFF 1. Lig matches and Vanspor FK's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bodrum FK are 7th on 21 points from 14 games; Vanspor FK are 14th on 16 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Bodrum FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Boluspor.
- Vanspor FK are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Sivasspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Bodrum FK 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 February 2026, ended Vanspor FK 3–1 Bodrum FK.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bodrum FK vs Vanspor FK
Has the model earned this number?
Bodrum FK at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bodrum FK vs Vanspor FK
Bodrum FK
1. Lig
- W2-1away to Boluspor8 November 2026
- D1-1Ümraniyespor1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Antalyaspor25 October 2026
- W2-1Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026
Vanspor FK
1. Lig
- W3-1Sivasspor7 November 2026
- W1-0Sarıyer31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Boluspor23 October 2026
- L0-2Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026
What these results say
- Bodrum FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vanspor FK won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vanspor FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bodrum FK | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 21 |
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vanspor FK
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 33% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Vanspor FK
- 19 February 2026Vanspor FK 3–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 24 September 2025Bodrum FK 2–0 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 30 March 2022Bodrum FK 0–0 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 14 November 2021Vanspor FK 1–3 Bodrum FK2. Lig
- 4 March 2021Bodrum FK 1–0 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 28 October 2020Vanspor FK 1–1 Bodrum FK2. Lig
Leading scorers: Bodrum FK and Vanspor FK
Bodrum FK
GoalsAssists
- V. Aboubakar50
- E. Bilsel41
Vanspor FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bodrum FK a 0.2% chance of the title and Vanspor FK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodrum FK the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Bodrum FK against 0.78 for Vanspor FK. Bodrum FK's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.78 for Vanspor FK.
How the model reaches 55% for Bodrum FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bodrum FK to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Bodrum FK's ratings add 6 points and Vanspor FK's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Bodrum FK's ratings48%+6
- Vanspor FK's ratings55%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bodrum FK at home · Vanspor FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bodrum FK 14, Vanspor FK 14.
Bodrum FK score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Vanspor FK have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bodrum FK
- at Sivasspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 40%
- at Kayserispor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 18%
- vs Iğdır FK13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Fatih Karagümrük20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 28%
- at Bursaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 19%
Vanspor FK
- vs Bursaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- at Fatih Karagümrük6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
- vs Esenler Erokspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 30%
- at Iğdır FK20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 21%
- at Kayserispor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 11%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.