Criciuma
vs
Novorizontino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Criciuma 0–1 Novorizontino
The model makes it 31% Criciuma, 29% draw, 40% Novorizontino — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Criciuma 1.12, Novorizontino 1.34.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Edge to Novorizontino: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Criciuma's rating is built from 74 Brazilian Serie B matches and Novorizontino's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Criciuma are 4th on 62 points from 36 games; Novorizontino are top on 64 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Criciuma have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Ponte Preta.
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Atletico Goianiense.
- Last 6 meetings: Novorizontino 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 July 2026, ended Novorizontino 0–1 Criciuma.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Criciuma vs Novorizontino
Has the model earned this number?
Novorizontino at 40%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Criciuma vs Novorizontino
Criciuma
Serie B
- W2-0Ponte Preta30 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife24 October 2026
- W1-0away to São Bernardo18 October 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Ceara8 October 2026
Novorizontino
Serie B
- W1-0away to Atletico Goianiense24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Vila Nova18 October 2026
- W5-1Ponte Preta12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife8 October 2026
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
What these results say
- Criciuma scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Criciuma had two goals or fewer.
- Novorizontino went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Novorizontino scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Novorizontino won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Criciuma | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 62 |
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 62 | 30 | +32 | 64 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Criciuma vs Novorizontino
- 21 July 2026Novorizontino 0–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 23 August 2025Criciuma 2–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 21 April 2025Novorizontino 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 25 November 2023Novorizontino 2–0 CriciumaSerie B
- 22 July 2023Criciuma 0–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 14 August 2022Novorizontino 3–1 CriciumaSerie B
Leading scorers: Criciuma and Novorizontino
Criciuma
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson165
- Romulo119
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Criciuma carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.65 for Novorizontino.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Criciuma and 1.34 for Novorizontino.
Criciuma rate 0.54 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Novorizontino rate 0.85 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Criciuma a 0.4% chance of the title and Novorizontino 62.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Criciuma against 1.34 for Novorizontino. Criciuma's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.28 for Novorizontino.
How the model reaches 40% for Novorizontino to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Novorizontino to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Criciuma's ratings add 5 points and Novorizontino's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Criciuma's ratings33%+5
- Novorizontino's ratings40%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Criciuma at home · Novorizontino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Criciuma 36, Novorizontino 35.
Criciuma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Novorizontino have let in 8 there.
Novorizontino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Criciuma have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.