Venezia
vs
Bologna
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Venezia 0–1 Bologna
The model makes it 24% Venezia, 29% draw, 47% Bologna — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Venezia 0.85, Bologna 1.43.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
One-sided: Bologna are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Venezia's rating is built from 11 Serie A matches and Bologna's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Venezia are 19th on 6 points from 11 games; Bologna are 8th on 17 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Venezia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Udinese.
- Bologna are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Parma.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 March 2025, ended Venezia 0–1 Bologna.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Venezia vs Bologna
Has the model earned this number?
Bologna at 47%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Venezia vs Bologna
Venezia
Serie A
- W2-1Udinese6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Como1 November 2026
- L0-2Inter28 October 2026
- L0-1away to Genoa25 October 2026
- W1-0Napoli17 October 2026
Bologna
Serie A
- W2-1away to Parma7 November 2026
- W2-1Monza31 October 2026
- W4-2away to AC Milan28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cagliari24 October 2026
- L1-3Inter17 October 2026
What these results say
- Venezia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Venezia had two goals or fewer.
- Bologna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bologna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bologna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Venezia vs Bologna
- 29 March 2025Venezia 0–1 BolognaSerie A
- 30 November 2024Bologna 3–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 8 May 2022Venezia 4–3 BolognaSerie A
- 21 November 2021Bologna 0–1 VeneziaSerie A
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bologna the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Venezia against 1.43 for Bologna. Venezia's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.89 for Bologna.
How the model reaches 47% for Bologna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bologna to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Venezia's ratings add 7 points and Bologna's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level32%−2
- Venezia's ratings39%+7
- Bologna's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Venezia at home · Bologna away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
VeneziaBologna
Venezia are 19th after 11 Serie A matches (between 18th and 20th so far); Bologna are 8th after 11 (between 8th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Venezia 11, Bologna 11.
Venezia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Bologna have let in 4 there.
Bologna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Venezia have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Venezia
- vs Sassuolo7 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
- at Cagliari12 Dec · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Monza20 Dec · Serie Awin 33%
- at Torino2 Jan · Serie Awin 25%
Bologna
- vs AS Roma4 Dec · Serie Awin 20%
- at Como12 Dec · Serie Awin 23%
- at Fiorentina20 Dec · Serie Awin 35%
- vs Juventus3 Jan · Serie Awin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.