AB Copenhagen
vs
Vejle
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AB Copenhagen 1–0 Vejle
The model makes it 42% AB Copenhagen, 28% draw, 30% Vejle — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AB Copenhagen 1.53, Vejle 1.22.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. AB Copenhagen's rating is built from 14 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Vejle's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AB Copenhagen are 4th on 21 points from 14 games; Vejle are 2nd on 27 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
- AB Copenhagen have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Vendsyssel FF.
- Vejle are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to FC Fredericia.
- Last 6 meetings: Vejle 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Vejle 2–2 AB Copenhagen.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AB Copenhagen vs Vejle
Has the model earned this number?
AB Copenhagen at 42%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AB Copenhagen vs Vejle
AB Copenhagen
1. Division
- W3-0Vendsyssel FF6 November 2026
- L1-3away to FC Fredericia31 October 2026
- W1-0Kolding IF24 October 2026
- W3-2away to HB Koge16 October 2026
- W2-0Aarhus Fremad9 October 2026
Vejle
1. Division
- W1-0FC Fredericia6 November 2026
- D1-1away to Vendsyssel FF1 November 2026
- D0-0Aarhus Fremad24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Aalborg17 October 2026
- L1-2Hvidovre9 October 2026
What these results say
- AB Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AB Copenhagen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vejle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vejle had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 21 |
| 2 | Vejle | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AB Copenhagen vs Vejle
- 24 July 2026Vejle 2–2 AB Copenhagen1. Division
- 1 November 2023AB Copenhagen 1–1 VejleDBU Pokalen
- 7 May 2017Vejle 2–2 AB Copenhagen1. Division
- 19 March 2017AB Copenhagen 1–2 Vejle1. Division
- 25 August 2016Vejle 0–0 AB Copenhagen1. Division
- 20 May 2015Vejle 3–1 AB Copenhagen1. Division
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vejle (second, with AB Copenhagen fourth), while our numbers lean to AB Copenhagen. AB Copenhagen rate 0.58 in attack and 1.63 in defence, Vejle 0.62 and 1.62 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AB Copenhagen a 1.2% chance of the title and Vejle 19.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AB Copenhagen the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for AB Copenhagen against 1.22 for Vejle. AB Copenhagen's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.62 for Vejle.
How the model reaches 42% for AB Copenhagen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AB Copenhagen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AB Copenhagen's ratings take away 1 point and Vejle's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- AB Copenhagen's ratings43%−1
- Vejle's ratings42%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AB Copenhagen at home · Vejle away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AB Copenhagen 14, Vejle 14.
AB Copenhagen score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Vejle have let in 1 there.
Vejle score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); AB Copenhagen have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AB Copenhagen
- at Aarhus Fremad4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- at Aalborg20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- vs HB Koge27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 56%
- vs Hillerød6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 54%
Vejle
- vs Hobro6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 61%
- at Hvidovre20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Aalborg27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 57%
- at Esbjerg6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.