Celje
vs
Brinje-Grosuplje
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Celje 2–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
The model makes it 70% Celje, 19% draw, 11% Brinje-Grosuplje — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Celje 2.48, Brinje-Grosuplje 0.69.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Celje are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Celje's rating is built from 48 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Brinje-Grosuplje's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Celje are 3rd on 23 points from 14 games; Brinje-Grosuplje are 8th on 16 points from 15 games — 1. SNL.
- Celje are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Radomlje.
- Brinje-Grosuplje are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Aluminij.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celje vs Brinje-Grosuplje
Has the model earned this number?
Celje at 70%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celje vs Brinje-Grosuplje
Celje
1. SNL
- W2-1away to Radomlje8 November 2026
- W4-0Nafta1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Olimpija Ljubljana28 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maribor18 October 2026
- W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026
Brinje-Grosuplje
1. SNL
- W1-0Aluminij8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Mura1 November 2026
- D0-0Bravo29 October 2026
- L0-5away to Koper18 October 2026
- L1-2Maribor11 October 2026
What these results say
- Celje went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Celje scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brinje-Grosuplje failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celje | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Celje
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 35% today
Brinje-Grosuplje
Chance to finish in the bottom one · 12% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Celje vs Brinje-Grosuplje
- 30 August 2026Brinje-Grosuplje 4–1 Celje1. SNL
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celje a 35% chance of the title and Brinje-Grosuplje 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Celje v Brinje-Grosuplje has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 72% / 18% / 10% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 70% / 19% / 11%: the biggest move is Celje's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Celje win70%▼ −2
- Draw19%▲ +1
- Brinje-Grosuplje win11%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celje the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Celje against 0.69 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Celje's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.86 for Brinje-Grosuplje.
How the model reaches 70% for Celje to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Celje to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Celje's ratings add 13 points and Brinje-Grosuplje's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Celje's ratings57%+13
- Brinje-Grosuplje's ratings70%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Celje at home · Brinje-Grosuplje away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Celje 14, Brinje-Grosuplje 15.
Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Brinje-Grosuplje have let in 6 there.
Brinje-Grosuplje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Celje have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Celje
- at Ferencvarosi TC26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
- at Koper28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 31%
- vs Radomlje2 Dec · 1. SNLwin 76%
- vs Bravo5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 58%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
Brinje-Grosuplje
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 26%
- at Nafta5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 23%
- at Radomlje30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 30%
- at Maribor6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 16%
- vs Koper10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.