Tottenham
vs
Ipswich
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Tottenham 2–1 Ipswich
The model makes it 43% Tottenham, 26% draw, 31% Ipswich — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tottenham 1.69, Ipswich 1.36.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Tottenham's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Ipswich's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Tottenham are 11th on 12 points from 10 games; Ipswich are 14th on 11 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Tottenham have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Leeds.
- Ipswich are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bournemouth.
- Last 3 meetings: Tottenham 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2025, ended Ipswich 1–4 Tottenham.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tottenham vs Ipswich
Has the model earned this number?
Tottenham at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tottenham vs Ipswich
Tottenham
Premier League
- L0-1away to Leeds7 November 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Chelsea24 October 2026
- W3-1Coventry19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026
Ipswich
Premier League
- L1-2Bournemouth8 November 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City31 October 2026
- D1-1Nottingham Forest23 October 2026
- L2-3away to Manchester City17 October 2026
- W2-1Fulham10 October 2026
What these results say
- Tottenham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tottenham had two goals or fewer.
- Ipswich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ipswich.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tottenham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
Ipswich
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Ipswich
- 22 February 2025Ipswich 1–4 TottenhamPremier League
- 10 November 2024Tottenham 1–2 IpswichPremier League
- 22 August 2020Tottenham 3–0 IpswichFriendlies Clubs
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Tottenham against 1.36 for Ipswich. Tottenham's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.23 for Ipswich.
How the model reaches 43% for Tottenham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Tottenham to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Tottenham's ratings change nothing and Ipswich's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Tottenham's ratings41%±0
- Ipswich's ratings43%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Tottenham at home · Ipswich away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
TottenhamIpswich
Tottenham are 11th after 10 Premier League matches (between 8th and 20th so far); Ipswich are 14th after 10 (between 4th and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Tottenham 10, Ipswich 10.
Tottenham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Ipswich have let in 1 there.
Ipswich score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Tottenham have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Tottenham
- at Sunderland29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Fulham3 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Arsenal6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- at Hull City14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Liverpool19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Ipswich
- vs Aston Villa28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Coventry1 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Leeds5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Newcastle12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Brighton20 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.