Levski Sofia
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Levski Sofia 1–0 CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 48% Levski Sofia, 28% draw, 24% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.52, CSKA Sofia 0.93.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,305 settled matches.
Edge to Levski Sofia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Levski Sofia's rating is built from 46 Bulgarian First League matches and CSKA Sofia's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Levski Sofia are top on 28 points from 10 games; CSKA Sofia are 2nd on 27 points from 11 games — First League.
- Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Cherno More Varna.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Ludogorets.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended Levski Sofia 2–4 CSKA Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 48% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 2,310 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
First League
- W2-0away to Cherno More Varna11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
CSKA Sofia
First League
- W2-0Ludogorets26 October 2026
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
What these results say
- Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Levski Sofia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 71% today
CSKA Sofia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 12% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
- 9 September 2026Levski Sofia 2–4 CSKA SofiaSuper Cup
- 16 May 2026Levski Sofia 2–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 25 April 2026CSKA Sofia 1–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 13 April 2026CSKA Sofia 1–1 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 8 November 2025Levski Sofia 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 2 March 2025CSKA Sofia 2–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.67 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Levski Sofia and 0.93 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.90 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.85 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Levski Sofia a 71.4% chance of the title and CSKA Sofia 12.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 0.93 for CSKA Sofia. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.22 for CSKA Sofia.
How the model reaches 48% for Levski Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Levski Sofia to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Levski Sofia's ratings take away 2 points and CSKA Sofia's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Levski Sofia's ratings38%−2
- CSKA Sofia's ratings48%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Levski Sofia at home · CSKA Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Levski Sofia 10, CSKA Sofia 11.
Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 1 there.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Levski Sofia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Levski Sofia
- vs Lokomotiv Sofia22 Nov · First Leaguewin 72%
- at Marseille26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 23%
CSKA Sofia
- at Botev Plovdiv22 Nov · First Leaguewin 50%
- vs Trabzonspor26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
- at Dunav Ruse29 Nov · First Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.