Manchester United
vs
Aston Villa
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Manchester United 2–1 Aston Villa
The model makes it 45% Manchester United, 25% draw, 30% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Manchester United 1.93, Aston Villa 1.47.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Manchester United's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Aston Villa's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Manchester United are 15th on 7 points from 7 games; Aston Villa are 6th on 11 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Manchester United have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Leeds.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Manchester City.
- Last 6 meetings: Manchester United 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester United at 45% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Manchester United
Premier League
- D1-1away to Leeds18 October 2026
- D1-1Tottenham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fulham20 September 2026
- L0-1Manchester City13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
Aston Villa
Premier League
- W2-1Manchester City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Newcastle17 October 2026
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Tottenham19 September 2026
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
What these results say
- Manchester United did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aston Villa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- 15 March 2026Manchester United 3–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 21 December 2025Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 25 May 2025Manchester United 2–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 6 October 2024Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 11 February 2024Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 26 December 2023Manchester United 3–2 Aston VillaPremier League
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Aston Villa
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- B. Mbeumo40
- Bruno Fernandes31
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Manchester United carry a model rating of 7.09 against 7.03 for Aston Villa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Manchester United and 1.47 for Aston Villa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manchester United rate 1.37 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aston Villa rate 1.25 and 0.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aston Villa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Manchester United a 0.8% chance of the title and Aston Villa 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester United the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Manchester United against 1.47 for Aston Villa. Manchester United's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.25/0.88 for Aston Villa.
How the model reaches 45% for Manchester United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Manchester United to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Manchester United's ratings add 15 points and Aston Villa's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Manchester United's ratings56%+15
- Aston Villa's ratings45%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Manchester United at home · Aston Villa away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Manchester UnitedAston Villa
Manchester United are 15th after 7 Premier League matches (between 10th and 19th so far); Aston Villa are 6th after 8 (between 6th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Manchester United 7, Aston Villa 8.
Manchester United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Aston Villa have let in 0 there.
Aston Villa score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Manchester United have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Manchester United
- at Liverpool22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Sporting CP25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
Aston Villa
- vs Sunderland21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- at Galatasaray24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
- at Ipswich28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.