Pumas UNAM
vs
Club America
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Pumas UNAM 1–2 Club America
The model makes it 37% Pumas UNAM, 24% draw, 39% Club America — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 1.79, Club America 1.85.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Pumas UNAM and Club America are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Pumas UNAM are 12th on 17 points from 14 games; Club America are top on 27 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Pumas UNAM have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tigres UANL.
- Club America are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-2 win away to Atlas.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 May 2026, ended Pumas UNAM 3–3 Club America.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pumas UNAM vs Club America
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Club America
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX
- D1-1Tigres UANL25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Santos Laguna22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Atlante FC17 October 2026
- D3-3Cruz Azul12 October 2026
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
Club America
Liga MX
- W5-2away to Atlas22 October 2026
- W5-3away to Leon18 October 2026
- D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club America went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 16 | +16 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pumas UNAM
Chance to finish in the top eight
Club America
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 82% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Club America
- 11 May 2026Pumas UNAM 3–3 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 3 May 2026Club America 3–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 22 March 2026Pumas UNAM 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 28 September 2025Club America 4–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 23 February 2025Pumas UNAM 0–2 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 30 September 2024Club America 0–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Club America
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho81
- R. Morales44
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín73
- B. Rodríguez53
- M. Borja50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pumas UNAM carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.78 for Club America. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.85 for Club America. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pumas UNAM rate 0.81 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club America rate 1.09 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pumas UNAM a 0% chance of the title and Club America 82.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.85 for Club America. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.28 for Club America.
How the model reaches 39% for Club America to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club America to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Pumas UNAM's ratings add 13 points and Club America's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Pumas UNAM's ratings42%+13
- Club America's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pumas UNAM at home · Club America away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Pumas UNAMClub America
Pumas UNAM are 12th after 14 Liga MX matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Club America are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Pumas UNAM 13, Club America 12.
Club America score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Pumas UNAM have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Pumas UNAM
- vs Monterrey22 Nov · Liga MXwin 44%
Club America
- at Tigres UANL22 Nov · Liga MXwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.