Kryvbas KR
vs
FC Kharkiv
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Kryvbas KR 1–2 FC Kharkiv
The model makes it 26% Kryvbas KR, 26% draw, 48% FC Kharkiv — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kryvbas KR 1.21, FC Kharkiv 1.84.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Kharkiv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kryvbas KR's rating is built from 40 Ukrainian Premier League matches and FC Kharkiv's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Kryvbas KR are bottom on 7 points from 10 games; FC Kharkiv are 4th on 21 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Kryvbas KR have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
- FC Kharkiv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
- Last 6 meetings: Kryvbas KR 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended FC Kharkiv 0–0 Kryvbas KR.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv
Has the model earned this number?
FC Kharkiv at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv
Kryvbas KR
Premier League
- D1-1away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi7 November 2026
- L0-2Dynamo Kyiv2 November 2026
- D0-0away to Bukovyna25 October 2026
- L0-3LNZ Cherkasy18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Polessya18 September 2026
FC Kharkiv
Premier League
- W2-1away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi24 October 2026
- W2-1Livyi Bereh19 October 2026
- W2-1away to Chornomorets10 October 2026
- W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
- W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026
What these results say
- Kryvbas KR did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Kharkiv won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Kharkiv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Kharkiv had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kryvbas KR
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 41% today
FC Kharkiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 71% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv
- 21 February 2026FC Kharkiv 0–0 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 9 August 2025Kryvbas KR 2–0 FC KharkivPremier League
- 28 April 2024Kryvbas KR 3–0 FC KharkivPremier League
- 20 October 2023FC Kharkiv 1–3 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 29 May 2023FC Kharkiv 0–2 HirnykPremier League
- 20 November 2022Hirnyk 0–2 FC KharkivPremier League
Leading scorers: Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv
Kryvbas KR
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
FC Kharkiv
GoalsAssists
- B. Zabërgja62
- P. Itodo41
- R. Gadzhiev31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kryvbas KR a 0% chance of the title and FC Kharkiv 4.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Kharkiv the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kryvbas KR against 1.84 for FC Kharkiv. Kryvbas KR's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.14 for FC Kharkiv.
How the model reaches 48% for FC Kharkiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Kharkiv to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Kryvbas KR's ratings add 10 points and FC Kharkiv's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Kryvbas KR's ratings39%+10
- FC Kharkiv's ratings48%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kryvbas KR at home · FC Kharkiv away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Kryvbas KR 10, FC Kharkiv 9.
Kryvbas KR score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); FC Kharkiv have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kryvbas KR
- vs Veres Rivne28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 8%
- at Karpaty12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs Zorya Luhansk27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 38%
FC Kharkiv
- at Kudrivka28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- at Veres Rivne12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.