Livyi Bereh
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Livyi Bereh 0–1 Shakhtar Donetsk
The model makes it 18% Livyi Bereh, 27% draw, 55% Shakhtar Donetsk — fair odds of 5.56, 3.70 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 0.69, Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Livyi Bereh's rating is built from 12 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Shakhtar Donetsk's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Livyi Bereh are 12th on 9 points from 10 games; Shakhtar Donetsk are top on 29 points from 12 games — Premier League.
- Livyi Bereh are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Obolon'-Brovar.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Dynamo Kyiv.
- Last 2 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2025, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Livyi Bereh.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Has the model earned this number?
Shakhtar Donetsk at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Livyi Bereh
Premier League
- D1-1away to Obolon'-Brovar6 November 2026
- D0-0LNZ Cherkasy24 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
- L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
- D0-0Dynamo Kyiv8 November 2026
- W2-0Obolon'-Brovar30 October 2026
- D0-0Zorya Luhansk24 October 2026
- W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
What these results say
- Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Livyi Bereh scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Livyi Bereh
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 26% today
Shakhtar Donetsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 63% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Shakhtar Donetsk
- 24 February 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
- 18 August 2024Livyi Bereh 0–1 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
Leading scorers: Livyi Bereh and Shakhtar Donetsk
Livyi Bereh
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- Alisson Santana32
- Kauã Elias30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Livyi Bereh a 0% chance of the title and Shakhtar Donetsk 62.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 1.61 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.89 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
How the model reaches 55% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Livyi Bereh's ratings add 12 points and Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Livyi Bereh's ratings40%+12
- Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings55%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Livyi Bereh at home · Shakhtar Donetsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Livyi Bereh 10, Shakhtar Donetsk 12.
Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Livyi Bereh
- vs Kolos Kovalivka28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Dynamo Kyiv2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- at Veres Rivne5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Kudrivka27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs Fenerbahçe25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Bukovyna28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 76%
- vs Kryvbas KR5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 78%
- at Slovan Bratislava9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
- vs Kudrivka12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 85%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.