Chornomorets
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Chornomorets 1–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
The model makes it 43% Chornomorets, 29% draw, 28% Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chornomorets 1.39, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.03.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Chornomorets's rating is built from 11 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Chornomorets are 11th on 9 points from 11 games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are 9th on 10 points from 12 games — Premier League.
- Chornomorets have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Kudrivka.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kryvbas KR.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Has the model earned this number?
Chornomorets at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Chornomorets
Premier League
- L0-1away to Kudrivka7 November 2026
- W3-1away to Veres Rivne31 October 2026
- D0-0Karpaty25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Zorya Luhansk17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Kharkiv10 October 2026
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Premier League
- D1-1Kryvbas KR7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Zorya Luhansk2 November 2026
- L1-2FC Kharkiv24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Karpaty18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Kolos Kovalivka10 October 2026
What these results say
- Chornomorets failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chornomorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Chornomorets | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chornomorets
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 29% today
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 40% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Chornomorets
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
GoalsAssists
- A. Kozak33
- V. Sydun30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (9th, with Chornomorets 11th), while our numbers lean to Chornomorets. Chornomorets rate 0.49 in attack and 1.53 in defence, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.56 and 1.75 (lower is better in defence), so Chornomorets have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
How the call on Chornomorets v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Chornomorets's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Chornomorets win43%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win28%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chornomorets the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Chornomorets against 1.03 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Chornomorets's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.75 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
How the model reaches 43% for Chornomorets to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chornomorets to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Chornomorets's ratings take away 1 point and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Chornomorets's ratings42%−1
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Chornomorets at home · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Chornomorets 11, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 12.
Chornomorets score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have let in 2 there.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Chornomorets have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chornomorets
- at Dynamo Kyiv28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- at Bukovyna5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Polessya12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 12%
- at Kolos Kovalivka27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- vs LNZ Cherkasy28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Polessya5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 11%
- at Obolon'-Brovar12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 7%
- at Veres Rivne6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.