El Mokawloon
vs
Olympic El Qanah
Premier League prediction
Our model says: El Mokawloon 1–0 Olympic El Qanah
The model makes it 43% El Mokawloon, 29% draw, 28% Olympic El Qanah — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: El Mokawloon 1.44, Olympic El Qanah 1.06.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to El Mokawloon: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. El Mokawloon's rating is built from 41 Egyptian Premier League matches and Olympic El Qanah's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 627 matches.
Key facts
- El Mokawloon are 7th on 11 points from 8 games; Olympic El Qanah are 13th on 8 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- El Mokawloon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Zamalek SC.
- Olympic El Qanah have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Enppi.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 February 2025, ended El Mokawloon 1–2 Olympic El Qanah.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: El Mokawloon vs Olympic El Qanah
Has the model earned this number?
El Mokawloon at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into El Mokawloon vs Olympic El Qanah
El Mokawloon
Premier League
- L1-2away to Zamalek SC28 October 2026
- W3-0away to Enppi19 October 2026
- D1-1Masr12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Wadi Degla15 September 2026
- D1-1Al Ahly9 September 2026
Olympic El Qanah
Premier League
- L1-3Enppi30 October 2026
- D3-3away to Al Ahly21 October 2026
- D1-1Al Masry11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Masr17 September 2026
- D1-1El Geish7 September 2026
What these results say
- El Mokawloon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Olympic El Qanah did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Olympic El Qanah scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Olympic El Qanah conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 13 | Olympic El Qanah | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
El Mokawloon
Chance to finish in the top six · 34% today
Olympic El Qanah
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: El Mokawloon vs Olympic El Qanah
- 3 February 2025El Mokawloon 1–2 Olympic El QanahSecond League
- 8 October 2024Olympic El Qanah 3–4 El MokawloonSecond League
Leading scorers: El Mokawloon and Olympic El Qanah
El Mokawloon
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Olympic El Qanah
GoalsAssists
- M. Wayo30
- Hazem Abou Sena21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives El Mokawloon a 0.1% chance of the title and Olympic El Qanah 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives El Mokawloon the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for El Mokawloon against 1.06 for Olympic El Qanah. El Mokawloon's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2 for Olympic El Qanah.
How the model reaches 43% for El Mokawloon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for El Mokawloon to win. Then home advantage adds 1 point, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, El Mokawloon's ratings add 2 points and Olympic El Qanah's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage36%+1
- Both sides at this match's level37%+1
- El Mokawloon's ratings39%+2
- Olympic El Qanah's ratings43%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
El Mokawloon at home · Olympic El Qanah away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: El Mokawloon 8, Olympic El Qanah 8.
El Mokawloon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Olympic El Qanah have let in 2 there.
Olympic El Qanah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); El Mokawloon have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
El Mokawloon
- at Ceramica Cleopatra8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Future FC16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Ghazl El Mehalla22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Abu Qair Semad28 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Pyramids FC4 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 22%
Olympic El Qanah
- at Future FC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Ittihad Alexandria15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at National Bank of Egypt22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs Petrojet29 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Abu Qair Semad6 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.