LNZ Cherkasy
vs
Polessya
Premier League prediction
Our model says: LNZ Cherkasy 0–1 Polessya
The model makes it 34% LNZ Cherkasy, 30% draw, 36% Polessya — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: LNZ Cherkasy 1.18, Polessya 1.24.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. LNZ Cherkasy's rating is built from 41 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Polessya's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- LNZ Cherkasy are 6th on 18 points from 11 games; Polessya are 2nd on 28 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- LNZ Cherkasy are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Zorya Luhansk.
- Polessya are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Veres Rivne.
- Last 6 meetings: Polessya 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–3 Polessya.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya
Has the model earned this number?
Polessya at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya
LNZ Cherkasy
Premier League
- W2-1away to Zorya Luhansk8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Livyi Bereh24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Kryvbas KR18 October 2026
- W2-1Kudrivka11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk20 September 2026
Polessya
Premier League
- W2-0Veres Rivne6 November 2026
- W3-0Obolon'-Brovar23 October 2026
- W3-1Dynamo Kyiv18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for LNZ Cherkasy had three goals or more.
- Polessya went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polessya won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Polessya | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
LNZ Cherkasy
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
Polessya
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 25% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya
- 28 February 2026LNZ Cherkasy 1–3 PolessyaPremier League
- 17 August 2025Polessya 0–2 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 28 March 2025LNZ Cherkasy 0–1 PolessyaPremier League
- 22 September 2024Polessya 1–1 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 6 July 2024Polessya 1–0 LNZ CherkasyFriendlies Clubs
- 1 March 2024Polessya 0–1 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
Leading scorers: LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya
LNZ Cherkasy
GoalsAssists
- P. Yade40
Polessya
GoalsAssists
- I. Krasnopir81
- V. Veleten41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives LNZ Cherkasy a 0.2% chance of the title and Polessya 24.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polessya the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.24 for Polessya. LNZ Cherkasy's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.15 for Polessya.
How the model reaches 36% for Polessya to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Polessya to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, LNZ Cherkasy's ratings add 4 points and Polessya's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- LNZ Cherkasy's ratings32%+4
- Polessya's ratings36%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
LNZ Cherkasy at home · Polessya away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: LNZ Cherkasy 11, Polessya 11.
LNZ Cherkasy score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Polessya have let in 1 there.
Polessya score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); LNZ Cherkasy have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
LNZ Cherkasy
- at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- vs Bukovyna12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Karpaty27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Polessya
- at Karpaty28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 70%
- vs Chornomorets12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 67%
- at FC Kharkiv27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.