Regular Season - 27 · 1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Allsvenskan prediction

Eleda Stadion, Malmö

Our model says: Malmo FF 1–2 Hammarby FF

The model makes it 29% Malmo FF, 26% draw, 45% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Malmo FF 1.24, Hammarby FF 1.70.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to Hammarby FF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Malmo FF are 6th on 36 points from 23 games; Hammarby FF are 3rd on 43 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
  • Malmo FF have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kalmar FF.
  • Hammarby FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Djurgardens IF.
  • Last 6 meetings: Hammarby FF 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Hammarby FF 4–1 Malmo FF.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

59%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Malmo FF win Draw Hammarby FF win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 0–28%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Malmo FF first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 45%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hammarby FF at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

Malmo FF

  • W1-0Kalmar FF12 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
  • W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
  • D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026

Hammarby FF

  • L0-1Djurgardens IF11 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
  • W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
  • L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Malmo FF had two goals or fewer.
  • Hammarby FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hammarby FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Malmo FF2311393833+536
3Hammarby FF2313464921+2843

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

  • 17 May 2026Hammarby FF 4–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 27 October 2025Malmo FF 1–3 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 23 April 2025Hammarby FF 2–0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 2 November 2024Hammarby FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 7 April 2024Malmo FF 2–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 17 September 2023Hammarby FF 1–3 Malmo FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Malmo FF and Hammarby FF

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Hammarby FF

GoalsAssists

  • P. Abraham143
  • V. Lind911

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Malmo FF carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.71 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Malmo FF and 1.70 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Malmo FF rate 0.68 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.85 and 1.12.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Malmo FF a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Malmo FF against 1.70 for Hammarby FF. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.12 for Hammarby FF.

Season stats

Malmo FFHammarby FF
23Matches23
11W 3D 9LRecord13W 4D 6L
38 1.7 per gameGoals scored49 2.1 per game
33 1.4 per gameGoals conceded21 0.9 per game
8 of 23Clean sheets9 of 23
3 of 23Failed to score3 of 23
0 of 1Penalties scored2 of 3
50 2.2 per gameYellow cards27 1.2 per game
1Red cards1
4-1-4-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 17×

Malmo FF at home · Hammarby FF away

12Played11
5W 1D 6LRecord4W 3D 4L
25–20Goals for – against15–14
3 of 12Clean sheets3 of 11

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: Malmo FF 23, Hammarby FF 23.

Malmo FF scored 376884
Hammarby FF conceded 523426
Hammarby FF scored 851010105
Malmo FF conceded 847646

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Malmo FF

  • at IFK Goteborg8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 39%
  • at Mjallby AIF21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 40%

Hammarby FF

  • vs IF Elfsborg6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 50%
  • vs IFK Goteborg23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 62%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.