CRB
vs
Ceara
Serie B prediction
Our model says: CRB 2–1 Ceara
The model makes it 53% CRB, 23% draw, 24% Ceara — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: CRB 2.15, Ceara 1.27.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. CRB's rating is built from 73 Brazilian Serie B matches and Ceara's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- CRB are 6th on 55 points from 35 games; Ceara are 16th on 43 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- CRB have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Londrina.
- Ceara are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Goias.
- Last 6 meetings: CRB 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Ceara 0–1 CRB.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CRB vs Ceara
Has the model earned this number?
CRB at 53%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CRB vs Ceara
CRB
Serie B
- W2-1Londrina24 October 2026
- L0-1Botafogo SP18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC12 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Goianiense7 October 2026
- L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026
Ceara
Serie B
- L0-2Goias27 October 2026
- D2-2Juventude17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo SP13 October 2026
- W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
What these results say
- CRB conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CRB scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CRB had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ceara had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 49 | +4 | 55 |
| 16 | Ceara | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CRB vs Ceara
- 22 July 2026Ceara 0–1 CRBSerie B
- 21 August 2024CRB 0–2 CearaSerie B
- 24 May 2024Ceara 0–1 CRBCopa Do Brasil
- 6 May 2024Ceara 2–2 CRBSerie B
- 2 May 2024CRB 1–0 CearaCopa Do Brasil
- 7 October 2023CRB 2–0 CearaSerie B
Leading scorers: CRB and Ceara
CRB
GoalsAssists
- Mikael164
- Crystopher78
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk65
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CRB the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for CRB against 1.27 for Ceara. CRB's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.79 for Ceara.
How the model reaches 53% for CRB to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CRB to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, CRB's ratings add 5 points and Ceara's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- CRB's ratings51%+5
- Ceara's ratings53%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
CRB at home · Ceara away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: CRB 35, Ceara 35.
CRB score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Ceara have let in 5 there.
Ceara score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); CRB have let in 14 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.