Dordrecht
vs
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Dordrecht 0–1 Vitesse
The model makes it 31% Dordrecht, 30% draw, 39% Vitesse — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.08, Vitesse 1.29.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
Edge to Vitesse: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Dordrecht's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Vitesse's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dordrecht are 18th on 12 points from 14 games; Vitesse are 10th on 18 points from 13 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Dordrecht are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to NAC Breda.
- Vitesse have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Jong Ajax.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Vitesse 1–2 Dordrecht.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dordrecht vs Vitesse
Has the model earned this number?
Vitesse at 39%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dordrecht vs Vitesse
Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie
- D0-0NAC Breda6 November 2026
- L2-3away to Jong Utrecht2 November 2026
- L2-4VVV Venlo24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026
- L0-3Emmen9 October 2026
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to Jong Ajax2 November 2026
- L0-2Emmen23 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Eindhoven16 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
What these results say
- Dordrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitesse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitesse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitesse had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Dordrecht | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 12 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs Vitesse
- 30 January 2026Vitesse 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 21 November 2025Dordrecht 1–1 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 24 January 2025Vitesse 0–3 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 22 October 2024Dordrecht 2–2 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 18 April 2015Vitesse 3–0 DordrechtEredivisie
- 27 September 2014Dordrecht 2–6 VitesseEredivisie
Leading scorers: Dordrecht and Vitesse
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis103
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dordrecht a 0% chance of the title and Vitesse 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitesse the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dordrecht against 1.29 for Vitesse. Dordrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.44 for Vitesse.
How the model reaches 39% for Vitesse to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vitesse to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Dordrecht's ratings add 6 points and Vitesse's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Dordrecht's ratings34%+6
- Vitesse's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dordrecht at home · Vitesse away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Dordrecht 14, Vitesse 13.
Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Vitesse have let in 3 there.
Vitesse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Dordrecht have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dordrecht
- at MVV4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
- at De Graafschap11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Den Bosch18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
Vitesse
- vs VVV Venlo4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- vs Helmond Sport11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.