Slavia Mozyr
vs
Baranovichi
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Slavia Mozyr 2–1 Baranovichi
The model makes it 51% Slavia Mozyr, 25% draw, 24% Baranovichi — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Slavia Mozyr 1.89, Baranovichi 1.11.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Slavia Mozyr's rating is built from 55 Belarusian Premier League matches and Baranovichi's from 26, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Slavia Mozyr are 10th on 28 points from 25 games; Baranovichi are 11th on 28 points from 26 games — Premier League.
- Slavia Mozyr have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Belshina.
- Baranovichi have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to FC Minsk.
- Last 4 meetings: Slavia Mozyr 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Baranovichi 1–1 Slavia Mozyr.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slavia Mozyr vs Baranovichi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Mozyr at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slavia Mozyr vs Baranovichi
Slavia Mozyr
Premier League
- W4-2away to Belshina19 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Minsk15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bate Borisov10 October 2026
- L0-1Naftan19 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Minsk11 September 2026
Baranovichi
Premier League
- W3-1away to FC Minsk23 October 2026
- L0-1FC Vitebsk17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Neman10 October 2026
- L0-2FC Gomel20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk12 September 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Mozyr conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Mozyr failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baranovichi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baranovichi failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baranovichi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Mozyr vs Baranovichi
- 26 June 2026Baranovichi 1–1 Slavia MozyrPremier League
- 3 December 2022Slavia Mozyr 2–0 BaranovichiFriendlies Clubs
- 3 November 2018Baranovichi 1–3 Slavia Mozyr1. Division
- 7 July 2018Slavia Mozyr 2–0 Baranovichi1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Slavia Mozyr carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.05 for Baranovichi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Slavia Mozyr and 1.11 for Baranovichi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Mozyr rate 0.52 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baranovichi rate 0.45 and 2.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Mozyr the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Slavia Mozyr against 1.11 for Baranovichi. Slavia Mozyr's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.23 for Baranovichi.
How the model reaches 51% for Slavia Mozyr to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slavia Mozyr to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Slavia Mozyr's ratings take away 31 points and Baranovichi's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Slavia Mozyr's ratings13%−31
- Baranovichi's ratings51%+38
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slavia Mozyr at home · Baranovichi away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Slavia Mozyr 25, Baranovichi 26.
Slavia Mozyr score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Baranovichi have let in 6 there.
Baranovichi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Slavia Mozyr have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Slavia Mozyr
- at ML Vitebsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- vs Dinamo Brest28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Baranovichi
- vs Belshina21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Torpedo Zhodino28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.