FC Vitebsk
vs
Dinamo Minsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Vitebsk 0–1 Dinamo Minsk
The model makes it 31% FC Vitebsk, 30% draw, 39% Dinamo Minsk — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Vitebsk 1.04, Dinamo Minsk 1.22.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
Edge to Dinamo Minsk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Vitebsk's rating is built from 55 Belarusian Premier League matches and Dinamo Minsk's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Vitebsk are 6th on 40 points from 25 games; Dinamo Minsk are 2nd on 52 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- FC Vitebsk are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Baranovichi.
- Dinamo Minsk are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
- Last 5 meetings: Dinamo Minsk 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Dinamo Minsk 1–1 FC Vitebsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Minsk at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk
FC Vitebsk
Premier League
- W1-0away to Baranovichi17 October 2026
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026
- W6-0Torpedo Zhodino20 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slavia Mozyr4 September 2026
Dinamo Minsk
Premier League
- W2-0Arsenal Dzerzhinsk19 October 2026
- W3-1Slavia Mozyr15 October 2026
- W3-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev11 October 2026
- W2-0Bate Borisov19 September 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Brest13 September 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Minsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Minsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 40 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 19 | +26 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk
- 27 June 2026Dinamo Minsk 1–1 FC VitebskPremier League
- 3 December 2025Dinamo Minsk 0–0 FC VitebskCoppa
- 20 September 2025FC Vitebsk 1–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
- 3 May 2025Dinamo Minsk 2–1 FC VitebskPremier League
- 20 September 2024FC Vitebsk 1–0 Dinamo MinskPremier League
The two sides
FC Vitebsk carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.5 for Dinamo Minsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for FC Vitebsk and 1.22 for Dinamo Minsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Vitebsk rate 0.47 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Minsk rate 0.68 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Vitebsk a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Minsk 27.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Minsk the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for FC Vitebsk against 1.22 for Dinamo Minsk. FC Vitebsk's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.36 for Dinamo Minsk.
How the model reaches 39% for Dinamo Minsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Minsk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, FC Vitebsk's ratings add 28 points and Dinamo Minsk's ratings take away 18 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- FC Vitebsk's ratings57%+28
- Dinamo Minsk's ratings39%−18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Vitebsk at home · Dinamo Minsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Vitebsk 25, Dinamo Minsk 24.
Dinamo Minsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Vitebsk have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
FC Vitebsk
- at FC Dnepr Mogilev21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
Dinamo Minsk
- vs FC Minsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- at Naftan28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 64%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.