FC Iberia 1999
vs
Getafe
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Iberia 1999 0–1 Getafe
The model makes it 23% FC Iberia 1999, 29% draw, 48% Getafe — fair odds of 4.35, 3.45 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: FC Iberia 1999 0.81, Getafe 1.43.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: Getafe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. FC Iberia 1999's rating is built from 68 Erovnuli Liga matches and Getafe's from 50 La Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 9 matches for FC Iberia 1999, 5 for Getafe. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.
Key facts
- FC Iberia 1999 are 29th on 1 point from 3 games; Getafe are 31st on 1 point from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FC Iberia 1999 have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Copenhagen.
- Getafe have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Brighton.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Iberia 1999 vs Getafe
Has the model earned this number?
Getafe at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Getafe
FC Iberia 1999
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-2away to FC Copenhagen5 November 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF22 October 2026
- L0-2away to St. Truiden15 October 2026
Getafe
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L0-1Brighton5 November 2026
- L2-5FC Lugano22 October 2026
- D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Iberia 1999 (29th, with Getafe 31st), while our numbers lean to Getafe. Getafe rate 0.61 in attack and 0.89 in defence, FC Iberia 1999 0.55 and 1.48 (lower is better in defence), so Getafe have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999 against 1.43 for Getafe. FC Iberia 1999's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/0.89 for Getafe.
How the model reaches 48% for Getafe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Getafe to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, FC Iberia 1999's ratings add 11 points and Getafe's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Both sides at this match's level27%−1
- FC Iberia 1999's ratings38%+11
- Getafe's ratings48%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often FC Iberia 1999's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Getafe's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Iberia 1999 at home · Getafe away
League matches only, this season — FC Iberia 1999 in the Erovnuli Liga, Getafe in the La Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Iberia 1999 32 in the Erovnuli Liga, Getafe 12 in the La Liga.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Getafe have let in 5 there.
Getafe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); FC Iberia 1999 have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Iberia 1999
- vs Dinamo Batumi30 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 43%
- vs Rustavi5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 40%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 22%
Getafe
- at Espanyol30 Nov · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Valencia6 Dec · La Ligawin 37%
- vs Inter Club d'Escaldes10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 73%
- at Real Sociedad13 Dec · La Ligawin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.