League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Monaco UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

Our model says: Heart of Midlothian 0–2 Monaco

The model makes it 17% Heart of Midlothian, 22% draw, 61% Monaco — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).

Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 0.97, Monaco 2.28.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Monaco are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Key facts

  • Heart of Midlothian are 32nd on 1 point from 3 games; Monaco are 4th on 9 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • Heart of Midlothian have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to FC Thun.
  • Monaco are unbeaten in their last 3 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to FC Nordsjaelland.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs Monaco

56%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Heart of Midlothian win Draw Monaco win
  1. 0–210%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 1–19%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 0–38%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Heart of Midlothian first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Monaco at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Monaco

Heart of Midlothian

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L1-3away to FC Thun5 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Trabzonspor22 October 2026
  • D1-1FC Nordsjaelland15 October 2026

Monaco

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W2-0FC Nordsjaelland5 November 2026
  • W3-0SC Freiburg22 October 2026
  • W2-1away to CSKA Sofia15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
32Heart of Midlothian301226-41
4Monaco330071+69

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Monaco

Heart of Midlothian

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Monaco

GoalsAssists

  • Paris Josua Brunner41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Heart of Midlothian Monaco
0.86 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.11
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.93
0.97 Model expected goals (this match) 2.28

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 2.28 for Monaco. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.93 for Monaco.

How the model reaches 61% for Monaco to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Monaco to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Heart of Midlothian's ratings add 17 points and Monaco's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 61%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. Heart of Midlothian's ratings44%+17
  5. Monaco's ratings61%+17

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Heart of MidlothianMonaco
12Matches10
6W 2D 4LRecord4W 4D 2L
26 2.2 per gameGoals scored13 1.3 per game
22 1.8 per gameGoals conceded11 1.1 per game
3 of 12Clean sheets2 of 10
0 of 12Failed to score1 of 10
5 of 5Penalties scored–
22 1.8 per gameYellow cards20 2.0 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Heart of Midlothian at home · Monaco away

6Played6
4W 1D 1LRecord2W 2D 2L
17–9Goals for – against6–7
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, this season — Heart of Midlothian in the Premiership, Monaco in the Ligue 1; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Heart of Midlothian 12 in the Premiership, Monaco 10 in the Ligue 1.

Heart of Midlothian scored 444634
Monaco conceded 013322

Heart of Midlothian score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Monaco have let in 3 there.

Monaco scored 213340
Heart of Midlothian conceded 435514

Monaco score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Heart of Midlothian have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Heart of Midlothian

  • vs Celtic29 Nov · Premiershipwin 31%
  • vs Aberdeen2 Dec · Premiershipwin 61%
  • at St Mirren5 Dec · Premiershipwin 50%

Monaco

  • at Lyon29 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
  • vs Angers5 Dec · Ligue 1win 67%
  • at Brighton10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 16%
  • at Rennes13 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.