Germany
vs
Netherlands
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Germany 2–1 Netherlands
The model makes it 48% Germany, 26% draw, 26% Netherlands — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Germany 1.83, Netherlands 1.23.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Edge to Germany: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Germany's rating is built from its last 3 matches; Netherlands's from its last 3 matches.
Key facts
- Germany are 3rd on 5 points from 4 games; Netherlands are top on 8 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Germany have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Greece.
- Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Serbia.
- Last 6 meetings: Germany 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 September 2026, ended Netherlands 1–1 Germany.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Germany vs Netherlands
Has the model earned this number?
Germany at 48%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Germany vs Netherlands
Germany
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Greece4 October 2026
- W2-0Serbia1 October 2026
- L0-1Greece27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026
Netherlands
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Serbia4 October 2026
- D2-2away to Greece1 October 2026
- W2-1away to Serbia27 September 2026
- D1-1Germany24 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Germany had two goals or fewer.
- Germany failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Netherlands went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Netherlands scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Netherlands conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Germany vs Netherlands
Germany and Netherlands have met 7 times in the records we hold, Germany has won 3 of them to Netherlands's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Netherlands on 24 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 11 |
| Netherlands | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Sep 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueNetherlands 1–1 Germany - 14 Oct 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueGermany 1–0 Netherlands - 10 Sep 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueNetherlands 2–2 Germany - 26 Mar 2024
FriendliesGermany 2–1 Netherlands - 29 Mar 2022
FriendliesNetherlands 1–1 Germany - 6 Sep 2019
Euro ChampionshipGermany 2–4 Netherlands - 24 Mar 2019
Euro ChampionshipNetherlands 2–3 Germany
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Germany's attack rates 4% above Netherlands', and Germany concede 24% fewer than Netherlands. That gives Germany the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1.44 | 0.71 |
| Netherlands | 1.38 | 0.94 |
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Germany the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Germany against 1.23 for Netherlands. Germany's attack/defence rating is 1.44/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.38/0.94 for Netherlands.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 48% for Germany to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Germany to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Germany's ratings add 4 points and Netherlands's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- Germany's ratings43%+4
- Netherlands's ratings48%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.