Regular Season - 9 · 23 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Ahly vs Pyramids FC Premier League prediction

Our model says: Al Ahly 0–1 Pyramids FC

The model makes it 33% Al Ahly, 28% draw, 39% Pyramids FC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Al Ahly 1.24, Pyramids FC 1.39.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Al Ahly's rating is built from 34 Egyptian Premier League matches and Pyramids FC's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 627 matches.

Key facts

  • Al Ahly are 2nd on 20 points from 8 games; Pyramids FC are top on 24 points from 8 games — Premier League.
  • Al Ahly are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Future FC.
  • Pyramids FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Wadi Degla.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Pyramids FC 3–0 Al Ahly.

More Egyptian Premier League predictions

All Egyptian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al Ahly vs Pyramids FC

54%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al Ahly win Draw Pyramids FC win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Al Ahly first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Pyramids FC at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al Ahly vs Pyramids FC

Al Ahly

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Future FC29 October 2026
  • D3-3Olympic El Qanah21 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Zamalek SC11 October 2026
  • W2-0Abu Qair Semad15 September 2026
  • D1-1away to El Mokawloon9 September 2026

Pyramids FC

Premier League

  • W2-1Wadi Degla29 October 2026
  • W4-1away to El Geish20 October 2026
  • W4-1Ceramica Cleopatra12 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Enppi17 September 2026
  • W1-0El Gouna FC9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al Ahly went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Al Ahly scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Al Ahly had two goals or fewer.
  • Pyramids FC won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Pyramids FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Pyramids FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Al Ahly8620156+920
1Pyramids FC8800194+1524

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Al Ahly

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 18% today

Win 30%
Draw 16%
Defeat 8%

Pyramids FC

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 68% today

Win 82%
Draw 67%
Defeat 54%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Al Ahly vs Pyramids FC

  • 27 April 2026Pyramids FC 3–0 Al AhlyPremier League
  • 30 August 2025Al Ahly 0–2 Pyramids FCPremier League
  • 12 April 2025Pyramids FC 1–1 Al AhlyPremier League
  • 26 January 2025Al Ahly 2–2 Pyramids FCPremier League
  • 22 July 2024Pyramids FC 0–1 Al AhlyPremier League
  • 12 July 2024Al Ahly 3–2 Pyramids FCPremier League

Leading scorers: Al Ahly and Pyramids FC

Al Ahly

GoalsAssists

  • Zizo32
  • A. Bencharki20

Pyramids FC

GoalsAssists

  • Mostafa Zico31
  • Mohanad Lasheen23
  • Youssef Obama21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Ahly a 18.1% chance of the title and Pyramids FC 68.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al Ahly Pyramids FC
0.87 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.96
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.27
1.24 Model expected goals (this match) 1.39

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pyramids FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al Ahly against 1.39 for Pyramids FC. Al Ahly's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.27 for Pyramids FC.

Al Ahly carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.71 for Pyramids FC. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Pyramids FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Pyramids FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Al Ahly's ratings add 2 points and Pyramids FC's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground34%
  2. Home advantage33%−1
  3. Both sides at this match's level35%+2
  4. Al Ahly's ratings37%+2
  5. Pyramids FC's ratings39%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Al AhlyPyramids FC
8Matches8
6W 2D 0LRecord8W 0D 0L
15 1.9 per gameGoals scored19 2.4 per game
6 0.8 per gameGoals conceded4 0.5 per game
5 of 8Clean sheets4 of 8
0 of 8Failed to score0 of 8
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
9 1.1 per gameYellow cards18 2.3 per game
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Al Ahly at home · Pyramids FC away

4Played4
3W 1D 0LRecord4W 0D 0L
9–5Goals for – against10–2
2 of 4Clean sheets2 of 4

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Al Ahly 8, Pyramids FC 8.

Al Ahly scored 042125
Pyramids FC conceded 102200

Al Ahly score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Pyramids FC have let in 0 there.

Pyramids FC scored 513234
Al Ahly conceded 023100

Pyramids FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Al Ahly have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Al Ahly

  • at Ghazl El Mehalla10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 53%
  • vs Asyut Petrol15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
  • at Ceramica Cleopatra24 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
  • vs Al Ittihad Alexandria29 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
  • at El Gouna FC5 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 52%

Pyramids FC

  • at Petrojet9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 58%
  • vs National Bank of Egypt14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
  • at Smouha SC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
  • vs Zamalek SC28 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
  • vs El Mokawloon4 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.