El Gouna FC
vs
Zamalek SC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: El Gouna FC 0–1 Zamalek SC
The model makes it 19% El Gouna FC, 32% draw, 49% Zamalek SC — fair odds of 5.26, 3.13 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (20%).
Expected goals: El Gouna FC 0.58, Zamalek SC 1.23.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: Zamalek SC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. El Gouna FC's rating is built from 41 Egyptian Premier League matches and Zamalek SC's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 627 matches.
Key facts
- El Gouna FC are bottom on 3 points from 8 games; Zamalek SC are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- El Gouna FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Asyut Petrol.
- Zamalek SC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to El Mokawloon.
- Last 6 meetings: Zamalek SC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 September 2025, ended Zamalek SC 1–1 El Gouna FC.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: El Gouna FC vs Zamalek SC
Has the model earned this number?
Zamalek SC at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into El Gouna FC vs Zamalek SC
El Gouna FC
Premier League
- D1-1away to Asyut Petrol30 October 2026
- L0-2Smouha SC19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al Ittihad Alexandria13 October 2026
- L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026
Zamalek SC
Premier League
- W2-1El Mokawloon28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Asyut Petrol20 October 2026
- L0-2Al Ahly11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ghazl El Mehalla16 September 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
What these results say
- El Gouna FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- El Gouna FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zamalek SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zamalek SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zamalek SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
El Gouna FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 64% today
Zamalek SC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 9% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: El Gouna FC vs Zamalek SC
- 23 September 2025Zamalek SC 1–1 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 19 March 2025Zamalek SC 1–1 El Gouna FCLeague Cup
- 27 January 2025Zamalek SC 4–1 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 2 August 2024Zamalek SC 1–0 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 12 March 2024El Gouna FC 3–2 Zamalek SCPremier League
- 5 August 2022El Gouna FC 1–4 Zamalek SCPremier League
Leading scorers: El Gouna FC and Zamalek SC
El Gouna FC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Zamalek SC
GoalsAssists
- Ahmed Sherif30
- Chico Banza21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives El Gouna FC a 0% chance of the title and Zamalek SC 8.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zamalek SC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.58 expected goals for El Gouna FC against 1.23 for Zamalek SC. El Gouna FC's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.11 for Zamalek SC.
How the model reaches 49% for Zamalek SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Zamalek SC to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, El Gouna FC's ratings add 7 points and Zamalek SC's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage33%−1
- Both sides at this match's level32%−1
- El Gouna FC's ratings39%+7
- Zamalek SC's ratings49%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
El Gouna FC at home · Zamalek SC away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: El Gouna FC 8, Zamalek SC 8.
Zamalek SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); El Gouna FC have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
El Gouna FC
- at National Bank of Egypt8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Abu Qair Semad15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Al Masry23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Ghazl El Mehalla27 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Ahly5 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Zamalek SC
- vs Al Masry9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- at Smouha SC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- vs El Geish23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- at Pyramids FC28 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs Wadi Degla4 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.