Fredrikstad
vs
Brann
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Fredrikstad 1–0 Brann
The model makes it 37% Fredrikstad, 28% draw, 35% Brann — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.36, Brann 1.32.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Fredrikstad and Brann are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Fredrikstad's rating is built from 53 Eliteserien matches and Brann's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Fredrikstad are 9th on 29 points from 23 games; Brann are 7th on 29 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
- Fredrikstad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Viking.
- Brann have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Valerenga.
- Last 6 meetings: Brann 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Brann 3–1 Fredrikstad.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fredrikstad vs Brann
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fredrikstad at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Brann
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien
- L2-3away to Viking17 October 2026
- D1-1Tromso11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Valerenga20 September 2026
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
Brann
Eliteserien
- L1-3away to Valerenga18 October 2026
- L0-2Viking9 October 2026
- W2-1Bodo/Glimt20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Start13 September 2026
- L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
What these results say
- Fredrikstad did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brann conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brann failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fredrikstad | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 29 |
| 7 | Brann | 23 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Brann
- 2 May 2026Brann 3–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 28 September 2025Brann 1–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 29 March 2025Fredrikstad 3–0 BrannEliteserien
- 18 August 2024Fredrikstad 0–4 BrannEliteserien
- 7 April 2024Brann 0–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 22 October 2022Fredrikstad 1–3 Brann1. Division
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Brann
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fredrikstad carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.63 for Brann. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.32 for Brann. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fredrikstad rate 0.62 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brann rate 0.79 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Brann, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fredrikstad the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fredrikstad against 1.32 for Brann. Fredrikstad's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.23 for Brann.
How the model reaches 37% for Fredrikstad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Fredrikstad to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Fredrikstad's ratings take away 17 points and Brann's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Fredrikstad's ratings26%−17
- Brann's ratings37%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fredrikstad at home · Brann away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Fredrikstad 23, Brann 23.
Brann score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Fredrikstad have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fredrikstad
- at Ham-Kam21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- vs Aalesund29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 46%
- at KFUM Oslo6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 31%
Brann
- at KFUM Oslo22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- vs Aarhus26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.