Sandefjord
vs
Molde
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Sandefjord 1–2 Molde
The model makes it 34% Sandefjord, 27% draw, 39% Molde — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.39, Molde 1.53.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Edge to Molde: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Sandefjord's rating is built from 53 Eliteserien matches and Molde's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Sandefjord are 13th on 24 points from 23 games; Molde are 3rd on 40 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
- Sandefjord have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Lillestrom.
- Molde have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-1 win at home to Start.
- Last 6 meetings: Sandefjord 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Molde 2–1 Sandefjord.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sandefjord vs Molde
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Molde at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sandefjord vs Molde
Sandefjord
Eliteserien
- L0-2Lillestrom18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026
- W3-0Start20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt14 September 2026
- D1-1Viking4 September 2026
Molde
Eliteserien
- W6-1Start18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026
- L1-2Aalesund19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sandefjord failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Molde had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sandefjord | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 24 |
| 3 | Molde | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 52 | 35 | +17 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Molde
- 30 May 2026Molde 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 19 October 2025Molde 1–3 SandefjordEliteserien
- 6 April 2025Sandefjord 3–0 MoldeEliteserien
- 19 October 2024Molde 0–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 5 May 2024Sandefjord 3–1 MoldeEliteserien
- 12 August 2023Sandefjord 2–2 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sandefjord and Molde
Sandefjord
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Molde
GoalsAssists
- E. Breivik99
- K. Lonebu82
- E. Hestad82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sandefjord carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.72 for Molde. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Sandefjord and 1.53 for Molde. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sandefjord rate 0.59 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Molde rate 0.99 and 1.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Molde the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sandefjord against 1.53 for Molde. Sandefjord's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.32 for Molde.
How the model reaches 39% for Molde to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Molde to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Sandefjord's ratings add 14 points and Molde's ratings take away 6 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Sandefjord's ratings45%+14
- Molde's ratings39%−6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sandefjord at home · Molde away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Sandefjord 23, Molde 23.
Sandefjord score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Molde have let in 1 there.
Molde score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Sandefjord have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sandefjord
- at Kristiansund BK22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 41%
- vs Tromso29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 36%
- at Ham-Kam6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 38%
Molde
- vs Bodo/Glimt20 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
- at Rosenborg28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 26%
- vs Viking4 Dec · Eliteserienwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.