Tromso
vs
Bodo/Glimt
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Tromso 1–2 Bodo/Glimt
The model makes it 28% Tromso, 26% draw, 46% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Tromso 1.26, Bodo/Glimt 1.78.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Bodo/Glimt: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Tromso's rating is built from 53 Eliteserien matches and Bodo/Glimt's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Tromso are 5th on 40 points from 23 games; Bodo/Glimt are 2nd on 56 points from 24 games — Eliteserien.
- Tromso are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to KFUM Oslo.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Valerenga.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Bodo/Glimt 5–0 Tromso.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodo/Glimt at 46% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt
Tromso
Eliteserien
- D1-1KFUM Oslo18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026
- W3-2Ham-Kam20 September 2026
- L3-5away to Rosenborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
Bodo/Glimt
Eliteserien
- L0-1Valerenga24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ham-Kam17 October 2026
- W3-1Kristiansund BK10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Brann20 September 2026
- W3-2Sandefjord14 September 2026
What these results say
- Tromso conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tromso failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tromso scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tromso | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 40 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 58 | 21 | +37 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt
- 16 May 2026Bodo/Glimt 5–0 TromsoEliteserien
- 9 August 2025Bodo/Glimt 1–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 16 May 2025Tromso 2–1 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 19 October 2024Tromso 0–0 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 16 May 2024Bodo/Glimt 4–0 TromsoEliteserien
- 30 July 2023Bodo/Glimt 0–2 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Tromso and Bodo/Glimt
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
- T. Nyhammer63
Bodo/Glimt
GoalsAssists
- A. Helmersen121
- K. Høgh74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tromso carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.94 for Bodo/Glimt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Tromso and 1.78 for Bodo/Glimt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tromso rate 0.81 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodo/Glimt rate 1.03 and 0.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tromso a 0% chance of the title and Bodo/Glimt 33.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Tromso against 1.78 for Bodo/Glimt. Tromso's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.87 for Bodo/Glimt.
How the model reaches 46% for Bodo/Glimt to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Bodo/Glimt to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Tromso's ratings add 11 points and Bodo/Glimt's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Tromso's ratings42%+11
- Bodo/Glimt's ratings46%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tromso at home · Bodo/Glimt away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Tromso 23, Bodo/Glimt 24.
Tromso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Bodo/Glimt have let in 2 there.
Bodo/Glimt score most often in the 16–30 minute window (14 goals); Tromso have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Tromso
- vs Viking21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 28%
- at Sandefjord29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 35%
- vs Start6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 65%
Bodo/Glimt
- at Molde20 Nov · Eliteserienwin 45%
- vs Lask Linz24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 61%
- vs KFUM Oslo28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.