Lillestrom
vs
Aalesund
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Lillestrom 2–1 Aalesund
The model makes it 50% Lillestrom, 24% draw, 26% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 2.05, Aalesund 1.35.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Lillestrom's rating is built from 23 Eliteserien matches and Aalesund's from 25, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Lillestrom are 6th on 36 points from 23 games; Aalesund are 14th on 24 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
- Lillestrom have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Sandefjord.
- Aalesund have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Kristiansund BK.
- Last 6 meetings: Lillestrom 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Aalesund 1–3 Lillestrom.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lillestrom vs Aalesund
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 50% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lillestrom vs Aalesund
Lillestrom
Eliteserien
- W2-0away to Sandefjord18 October 2026
- D2-2Molde11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Viking20 September 2026
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
Aalesund
Eliteserien
- W4-1away to Kristiansund BK17 October 2026
- L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Molde19 September 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
What these results say
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lillestrom | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 36 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Aalesund
- 15 March 2026Aalesund 1–3 LillestromEliteserien
- 10 August 2025Lillestrom 5–1 Aalesund1. Division
- 31 March 2025Aalesund 2–2 Lillestrom1. Division
- 3 September 2023Aalesund 1–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 19 July 2023Lillestrom 5–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 6 November 2022Aalesund 2–1 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Aalesund
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá65
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.51 for Aalesund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Lillestrom and 1.35 for Aalesund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.69 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aalesund rate 0.82 and 1.66.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.35 for Aalesund. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.66 for Aalesund.
How the model reaches 50% for Lillestrom to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lillestrom to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Lillestrom's ratings take away 14 points and Aalesund's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Lillestrom's ratings29%−14
- Aalesund's ratings50%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lillestrom at home · Aalesund away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Lillestrom 23, Aalesund 23.
Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Aalesund have let in 10 there.
Aalesund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Lillestrom have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lillestrom
- at Sarpsborg 08 FF22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Lyon26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 15%
Aalesund
- vs Rosenborg22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 27%
- at Fredrikstad29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- vs Bodo/Glimt5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.