Ham-Kam
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Ham-Kam 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF
The model makes it 36% Ham-Kam, 27% draw, 37% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ham-Kam 1.46, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.49.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Ham-Kam's rating is built from 54 Eliteserien matches and Sarpsborg 08 FF's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Ham-Kam are 12th on 26 points from 24 games; Sarpsborg 08 FF are 11th on 28 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
- Ham-Kam have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Rosenborg.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Rosenborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 Ham-Kam.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarpsborg 08 FF at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
- L0-3Rosenborg24 October 2026
- L0-2Bodo/Glimt17 October 2026
- W4-2away to Start11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Tromso20 September 2026
- L1-5Molde13 September 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
- L0-3Rosenborg18 October 2026
- W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026
- L1-3KFUM Oslo18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
What these results say
- Ham-Kam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ham-Kam failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ham-Kam | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 26 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 26 July 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 26 March 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
- 13 February 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–2 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
- 31 August 2025Ham-Kam 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 11 May 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 4–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 7 March 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
GoalsAssists
- D. Karlsbakk70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ham-Kam carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.52 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Ham-Kam and 1.49 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ham-Kam rate 0.65 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.65 and 1.26.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Ham-Kam against 1.49 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Ham-Kam's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.26 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
How the model reaches 37% for Sarpsborg 08 FF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sarpsborg 08 FF to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Ham-Kam's ratings add 27 points and Sarpsborg 08 FF's ratings take away 21 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Ham-Kam's ratings58%+27
- Sarpsborg 08 FF's ratings37%−21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ham-Kam at home · Sarpsborg 08 FF away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Ham-Kam 24, Sarpsborg 08 FF 23.
Sarpsborg 08 FF score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Ham-Kam have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ham-Kam
- vs Fredrikstad21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 35%
- at Lillestrom30 Nov · Eliteserienwin 22%
- vs Sandefjord6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Viking13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 10%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- vs Lillestrom22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- at Start29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
- vs Brann6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.