Kalmar FF
vs
Sirius
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Kalmar FF 1–2 Sirius
The model makes it 21% Kalmar FF, 24% draw, 55% Sirius — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kalmar FF 1.09, Sirius 2.07.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Sirius are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Kalmar FF's rating is built from 25 Allsvenskan matches and Sirius's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 682 matches.
Key facts
- Kalmar FF are 13th on 22 points from 25 games; Sirius are top on 55 points from 25 games — Allsvenskan.
- Kalmar FF have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to IF Brommapojkarna.
- Sirius have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AIK Stockholm.
- Last 6 meetings: Sirius 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Sirius 3–2 Kalmar FF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kalmar FF vs Sirius
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sirius at 55% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kalmar FF vs Sirius
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan
- L0-3IF Brommapojkarna24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Degerfors IF19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Malmo FF12 October 2026
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
Sirius
Allsvenskan
- L1-2AIK Stockholm24 October 2026
- D2-2IF Elfsborg18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gais10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
What these results say
- Kalmar FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sirius scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 22 |
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 56 | 32 | +24 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kalmar FF vs Sirius
- 2 May 2026Sirius 3–2 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 11 August 2024Sirius 3–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 8 April 2024Kalmar FF 1–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 13 August 2023Sirius 3–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 3 May 2023Kalmar FF 2–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 24 October 2022Sirius 0–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Kalmar FF and Sirius
Kalmar FF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- R. Ure152
- I. Bjerkebo146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kalmar FF carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.57 for Sirius. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Kalmar FF and 2.07 for Sirius. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kalmar FF rate 0.44 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sirius rate 0.85 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kalmar FF a 0% chance of the title and Sirius 72.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kalmar FF against 2.07 for Sirius. Kalmar FF's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.52 for Sirius.
How the model reaches 55% for Sirius to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sirius to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Kalmar FF's ratings add 37 points and Sirius's ratings take away 14 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Kalmar FF's ratings69%+37
- Sirius's ratings55%−14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kalmar FF at home · Sirius away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Kalmar FF 25, Sirius 25.
Kalmar FF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Sirius have let in 2 there.
Sirius score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Kalmar FF have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Kalmar FF
- at Orgryte IS23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs AIK Stockholm29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 28%
Sirius
- vs Djurgardens IF22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 32%
- at IFK Goteborg29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.