Regular Season - 38 · 14 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba Serie B prediction

Estadio Antonio Accioly, Goiania

Our model says: Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Cuiaba

The model makes it 44% Atletico Goianiense, 31% draw, 25% Cuiaba — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Atletico Goianiense 1.30, Cuiaba 0.84.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Atletico Goianiense's rating is built from 73 Brazilian Serie B matches and Cuiaba's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Atletico Goianiense are 8th on 54 points from 35 games; Cuiaba are 13th on 47 points from 35 games — Serie B.
  • Atletico Goianiense are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Novorizontino.
  • Cuiaba are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to America Mineiro.
  • Last 6 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 23 July 2026, ended Cuiaba 0–1 Atletico Goianiense.

More Brazilian Serie B predictions

All Brazilian Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

42%
Both teams to score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Atletico Goianiense win Draw Cuiaba win
  1. 1–015%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–19%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Atletico Goianiense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 26%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Goianiense at 44%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

Atletico Goianiense

Serie B

  • L0-1Novorizontino24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ponte Preta16 October 2026
  • D1-1Sport Recife11 October 2026
  • L1-3away to CRB7 October 2026
  • W2-0America Mineiro3 October 2026

Cuiaba

Serie B

  • L0-1away to America Mineiro26 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Londrina20 October 2026
  • L0-1Avai11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Vila Nova7 October 2026
  • W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Goianiense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Goianiense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Goianiense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Cuiaba had two goals or fewer.
  • Cuiaba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cuiaba failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Atletico Goianiense35141294233+954
13Cuiaba351114103228+447

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

  • 23 July 2026Cuiaba 0–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
  • 7 April 2026Atletico Goianiense 1–0 CuiabaCopa Centro-Oeste
  • 24 August 2025Cuiaba 2–2 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
  • 22 April 2025Atletico Goianiense 1–1 CuiabaSerie B
  • 18 October 2024Atletico Goianiense 0–0 CuiabaSerie A
  • 22 June 2024Cuiaba 0–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie A

Leading scorers: Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba

Atletico Goianiense

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Coutinho130

Cuiaba

GoalsAssists

  • Kauan63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atletico Goianiense the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense against 0.84 for Cuiaba. Atletico Goianiense's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.33 for Cuiaba.

How the model reaches 44% for Atletico Goianiense to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Goianiense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Atletico Goianiense's ratings add 2 points and Cuiaba's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. Atletico Goianiense's ratings43%+2
  5. Cuiaba's ratings44%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Atletico GoianienseCuiaba
35Matches35
14W 12D 9LRecord11W 14D 10L
42 1.2 per gameGoals scored32 0.9 per game
33 0.9 per gameGoals conceded28 0.8 per game
12 of 35Clean sheets14 of 35
9 of 35Failed to score16 of 35
6 of 7Penalties scored1 of 3
75 2.1 per gameYellow cards65 1.9 per game
4Red cards2
4-2-3-1 28×Usual shape3-4-2-1 22×

Atletico Goianiense at home · Cuiaba away

18Played18
9W 5D 4LRecord4W 7D 7L
27–15Goals for – against13–18
7 of 18Clean sheets5 of 18

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Atletico Goianiense 35, Cuiaba 35.

Atletico Goianiense scored 588578
Cuiaba conceded 338474
Cuiaba scored 2363116
Atletico Goianiense conceded 429477

Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Atletico Goianiense have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.