Fluminense
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fluminense 2–1 Cruzeiro
The model makes it 47% Fluminense, 26% draw, 27% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.80, Cruzeiro 1.26.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Fluminense's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Cruzeiro's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Fluminense are 4th on 57 points from 34 games; Cruzeiro are 3rd on 60 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Fluminense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Vitoria.
- Cruzeiro are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Bahia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Cruzeiro 1–1 Fluminense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fluminense vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 47%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Cruzeiro
Fluminense
Serie A
- W3-0away to Vitoria6 November 2026
- W2-1Internacional28 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chapecoense24 October 2026
- L1-2Santos18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
Cruzeiro
Serie A
- W3-2Bahia6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Atletico Mineiro29 October 2026
- W1-0Remo23 October 2026
- W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
- L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Cruzeiro
- 31 May 2026Cruzeiro 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 9 November 2025Cruzeiro 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 17 July 2025Fluminense 0–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 4 October 2024Fluminense 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 20 June 2024Cruzeiro 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 21 September 2023Fluminense 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Cruzeiro
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruzeiro (third, with Fluminense fourth), while our numbers lean to Fluminense. Fluminense rate 1.02 in attack and 1.03 in defence, Cruzeiro 1.09 and 1.11 (lower is better in defence), so Fluminense have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.26 for Cruzeiro. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.11 for Cruzeiro.
How the model reaches 47% for Fluminense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fluminense to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Fluminense's ratings change nothing and Cruzeiro's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level46%+1
- Fluminense's ratings46%±0
- Cruzeiro's ratings47%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fluminense at home · Cruzeiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fluminense 34, Cruzeiro 34.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 12 there.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Fluminense have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Fluminense
- at RB Bragantino3 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
Cruzeiro
- vs Internacional3 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.