Regular Season - 37 · 27 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Fluminense vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

Our model says: Fluminense 2–1 Cruzeiro

The model makes it 47% Fluminense, 26% draw, 27% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Fluminense 1.80, Cruzeiro 1.26.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Fluminense's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Cruzeiro's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.

Key facts

  • Fluminense are 4th on 57 points from 34 games; Cruzeiro are 3rd on 60 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Fluminense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Vitoria.
  • Cruzeiro are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Bahia.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Cruzeiro 1–1 Fluminense.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Fluminense vs Cruzeiro

60%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Fluminense win Draw Cruzeiro win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Fluminense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Fluminense at 47%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Fluminense vs Cruzeiro

Fluminense

Serie A

  • W3-0away to Vitoria6 November 2026
  • W2-1Internacional28 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Chapecoense24 October 2026
  • L1-2Santos18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026

Cruzeiro

Serie A

  • W3-2Bahia6 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Atletico Mineiro29 October 2026
  • W1-0Remo23 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
  • L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
  • Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Fluminense3416995542+1357
3Cruzeiro34186105548+760

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Fluminense

Cruzeiro and Fluminense have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.

The record

They drew 1–1 at Cruzeiro on 31 May 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Cruzeiro22253
Fluminense22235

Between them these 6 meetings produced 8 goals, an average of 1.33 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 May 2026
    Serie A    Cruzeiro 1–1 Fluminense
  • 9 Nov 2025
    Serie A    Cruzeiro 0–0 Fluminense
  • 17 Jul 2025
    Serie A    Fluminense 0–2 Cruzeiro
  • 4 Oct 2024
    Serie A    Fluminense 1–0 Cruzeiro
  • 20 Jun 2024
    Serie A    Cruzeiro 2–0 Fluminense
  • 21 Sep 2023
    Serie A    Fluminense 1–0 Cruzeiro

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Cruzeiro's attack rates 7% above Fluminense's, and Fluminense concede 7% fewer than Cruzeiro. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Cruzeiro1.091.11
Fluminense1.021.03

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Fluminense and Cruzeiro

Fluminense

GoalsAssists

  • John Kennedy91

Cruzeiro

GoalsAssists

  • Kaio Jorge142
  • Matheus Pereira97

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruzeiro (third, with Fluminense fourth), while our numbers lean to Fluminense. Fluminense rate 1.02 in attack and 1.03 in defence, Cruzeiro 1.09 and 1.11 (lower is better in defence), so Fluminense have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Fluminense Cruzeiro
1.02 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.09
1.03 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.11
1.80 Model expected goals (this match) 1.26

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.26 for Cruzeiro. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.11 for Cruzeiro.

Fluminense carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.85 for Cruzeiro. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for Fluminense to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fluminense to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Fluminense's ratings change nothing and Cruzeiro's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+1
  4. Fluminense's ratings46%±0
  5. Cruzeiro's ratings47%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FluminenseCruzeiro
34Matches34
16W 9D 9LRecord18W 6D 10L
55 1.6 per gameGoals scored55 1.6 per game
42 1.2 per gameGoals conceded48 1.4 per game
7 of 34Clean sheets8 of 34
4 of 34Failed to score4 of 34
2 of 2Penalties scored4 of 6
80 2.4 per gameYellow cards85 2.5 per game
2Red cards3
4-2-3-1 31×Usual shape4-2-3-1 32×

Fluminense at home · Cruzeiro away

17Played17
12W 3D 2LRecord8W 2D 7L
31–17Goals for – against25–30
5 of 17Clean sheets3 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Fluminense 34, Cruzeiro 34.

Fluminense scored 4998619
Cruzeiro conceded 78117212

Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 12 there.

Cruzeiro scored 671081015
Fluminense conceded 71510910

Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Fluminense have let in 10 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Fluminense

  • at RB Bragantino3 Dec · Serie Awin 32%

Cruzeiro

  • vs Internacional3 Dec · Serie Awin 55%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.