Regular Season - 37 · 26 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Remo Serie A prediction

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo

Our model says: Sao Paulo 1–0 Remo

The model makes it 50% Sao Paulo, 28% draw, 22% Remo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.57, Remo 0.87.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Sao Paulo's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Remo's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.

Key facts

  • Sao Paulo are 10th on 44 points from 34 games; Remo are 19th on 29 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Sao Paulo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Corinthians.
  • Remo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Palmeiras.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sao Paulo vs Remo

47%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sao Paulo win Draw Remo win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Sao Paulo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sao Paulo at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sao Paulo vs Remo

Sao Paulo

Serie A

  • D0-0Corinthians5 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Bahia29 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Mirassol24 October 2026
  • W1-0Vasco da Gama18 October 2026
  • W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026

Remo

Serie A

  • L1-6away to Palmeiras5 November 2026
  • W2-1Botafogo29 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cruzeiro23 October 2026
  • D1-1RB Bragantino18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Vasco da Gama10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Remo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Remo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo34128143939044
19Remo34611173757-2029

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Remo

  • 31 May 2026Remo 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Remo

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Remo

GoalsAssists

  • Jája Silva91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sao Paulo Remo
0.73 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.74
1.05 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.36
1.57 Model expected goals (this match) 0.87

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 0.87 for Remo. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.36 for Remo.

How the model reaches 50% for Sao Paulo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sao Paulo to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sao Paulo's ratings add 2 points and Remo's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%−1
  4. Sao Paulo's ratings46%+2
  5. Remo's ratings50%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sao PauloRemo
34Matches34
12W 8D 14LRecord6W 11D 17L
39 1.1 per gameGoals scored37 1.1 per game
39 1.1 per gameGoals conceded57 1.7 per game
8 of 34Clean sheets4 of 34
8 of 34Failed to score11 of 34
6 of 6Penalties scored1 of 3
76 2.2 per gameYellow cards72 2.1 per game
2Red cards5
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 25×

Sao Paulo at home · Remo away

17Played17
10W 4D 3LRecord2W 4D 11L
25–13Goals for – against15–35
7 of 17Clean sheets2 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Sao Paulo 34, Remo 34.

Sao Paulo scored 6575114
Remo conceded 610118414

Sao Paulo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Remo have let in 4 there.

Remo scored 6399410
Sao Paulo conceded 3491239

Remo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Sao Paulo have let in 9 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Sao Paulo

  • at Atletico Paranaense3 Dec · Serie Awin 25%

Remo

  • vs Corinthians3 Dec · Serie Awin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.