League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Kairat Almaty vs Mjallby AIF UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty

Our model says: Kairat Almaty 1–0 Mjallby AIF

The model makes it 40% Kairat Almaty, 32% draw, 28% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Kairat Almaty 1.14, Mjallby AIF 0.88.

Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kairat Almaty's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Mjallby AIF's from 58 Allsvenskan matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 25 matches for Kairat Almaty, 9 for Mjallby AIF. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • Kairat Almaty are 27th on 2 points from 3 games; Mjallby AIF are 9th on 7 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • Kairat Almaty have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Atalanta.
  • Mjallby AIF are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Borac Banja Luka.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kairat Almaty vs Mjallby AIF

40%
Both teams to score
33%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kairat Almaty win Draw Mjallby AIF win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–014%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Kairat Almaty first; the other scorelines share the remaining 25%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Kairat Almaty at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kairat Almaty vs Mjallby AIF

Kairat Almaty

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1away to Atalanta5 November 2026
  • L1-5Panathinaikos22 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Riga15 October 2026

Mjallby AIF

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W2-0Borac Banja Luka5 November 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Iberia 199922 October 2026
  • W2-0Inter Club d'Escaldes15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
27Kairat Almaty302137-42
9Mjallby AIF321051+47

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mjallby AIF (9th, with Kairat Almaty 27th), while our numbers lean to Kairat Almaty. Kairat Almaty rate 0.53 in attack and 2.24 in defence, Mjallby AIF 0.51 and 1.56 (lower is better in defence), so Kairat Almaty have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kairat Almaty Mjallby AIF
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
2.24 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.56
1.14 Model expected goals (this match) 0.88

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kairat Almaty the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kairat Almaty against 0.88 for Mjallby AIF. Kairat Almaty's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.56 for Mjallby AIF.

Kairat Almaty carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.3 for Mjallby AIF.

How the model reaches 40% for Kairat Almaty to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Kairat Almaty to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Kairat Almaty's ratings take away 1 point and Mjallby AIF's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage46%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−4
  4. Kairat Almaty's ratings41%−1
  5. Mjallby AIF's ratings40%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Kairat Almaty

  • vs Universitatea Craiova10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 12%
  • at Twente17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 2%

Mjallby AIF

  • at Halmstad29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 40%
  • vs Pafos10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 23%
  • at Atalanta17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 6%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.