League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Kaunas

Our model says: Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Riga

The model makes it 30% Kauno Žalgiris, 28% draw, 42% Riga — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Kauno Žalgiris 1.18, Riga 1.48.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Riga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kauno Žalgiris's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Riga's from its last 6 matches. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 9 matches for Kauno Žalgiris, 13 for Riga. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • Kauno Žalgiris are bottom on 0 points from 3 games; Riga are 19th on 3 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • Kauno Žalgiris have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Lugano.
  • Riga are unbeaten in their last 3 games (0 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FK Jablonec.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga

54%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kauno Žalgiris win Draw Riga win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–28%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–08%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Kauno Žalgiris first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Riga at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga

Kauno Žalgiris

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-3away to FC Lugano5 November 2026
  • L1-4Brann22 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Brighton15 October 2026

Riga

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1FK Jablonec5 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Pafos22 October 2026
  • D1-1Kairat Almaty15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
36Kauno Žalgiris3003111-100
19Riga30303303

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kauno Žalgiris Riga
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57
2.22 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.92
1.18 Model expected goals (this match) 1.48

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Riga the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris against 1.48 for Riga. Kauno Žalgiris's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.92 for Riga.

How the model reaches 42% for Riga to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Riga to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kauno Žalgiris's ratings add 7 points and Riga's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. Kauno Žalgiris's ratings34%+7
  5. Riga's ratings42%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Kauno Žalgiris

  • at Egnatia Rrogozhinë10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 23%
  • vs SC Freiburg17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 7%

Riga

  • vs Atalanta10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 13%
  • at Borac Banja Luka17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 14%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.