FC WIL 1900
vs
FC Winterthur
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: FC WIL 1900 1–2 FC Winterthur
The model makes it 33% FC WIL 1900, 27% draw, 40% FC Winterthur — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC WIL 1900 1.35, FC Winterthur 1.54.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Winterthur: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- FC WIL 1900 are 8th on 10 points from 10 games; FC Winterthur are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- FC WIL 1900 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to SC Kriens.
- FC Winterthur have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Neuchatel Xamax FC.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Winterthur 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended FC Winterthur 5–0 FC WIL 1900.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Winterthur at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur
FC WIL 1900
- D1-1away to SC Kriens9 October 2026
- W5-0Stade Nyonnais18 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Étoile Carouge4 September 2026
- D2-2FC Aarau31 August 2026
FC Winterthur
- L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Étoile Carouge11 September 2026
- W4-0Neuchatel Xamax FC4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Nyonnais1 September 2026
What these results say
- FC WIL 1900 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC WIL 1900 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC WIL 1900 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Winterthur scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Winterthur had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur
- 7 August 2026FC Winterthur 5–0 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
- 10 October 2024FC Winterthur 2–2 FC WIL 1900Friendlies Clubs
- 14 September 2024FC WIL 1900 2–2 FC WinterthurSchweizer Cup
- 9 May 2022FC WIL 1900 1–1 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 12 February 2022FC Winterthur 4–0 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
- 11 December 2021FC WIL 1900 3–5 FC WinterthurChallenge League
The two sides
FC WIL 1900 carry a model rating of 6.01 against 6.23 for FC Winterthur. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for FC WIL 1900 and 1.54 for FC Winterthur. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC WIL 1900 rate 0.44 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Winterthur rate 0.54 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC WIL 1900 a 0% chance of the title and FC Winterthur 6.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Winterthur the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC WIL 1900 against 1.54 for FC Winterthur. FC WIL 1900's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.88 for FC Winterthur.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC WIL 1900 at home · FC Winterthur away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: FC WIL 1900 10, FC Winterthur 10.
FC WIL 1900 score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); FC Winterthur have let in 2 there.
FC Winterthur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC WIL 1900 have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC WIL 1900
- at FC Aarau6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- at Stade Nyonnais20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 41%
- vs Yverdon Sport28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
- vs Étoile Carouge5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
FC Winterthur
- vs Étoile Carouge7 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- at Yverdon Sport20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
- vs Rapperswil27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.